Published on: 2026-03-24
Silver still has a credible case to rise again after the latest pullback, but the rebound is more likely to be uneven than immediate.
While long-term support remains, the short-term market is influenced by higher real rates, a stronger dollar, and concerns that expensive oil may weaken global industrial demand.
At the latest live check on Kitco, spot silver was around $67.44 an ounce, down 2.29% on the day. According to Trading Economics, silver has increased by 109.89% over the past year but has decreased by 20.65% in the last month, indicating the volatility of the recent market correction.
| Metric | Latest reading | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Spot silver, latest live check | $67.44/oz | Shows silver is still under short-term pressure |
| Daily move | -2.29% | Confirms the pullback is still active |
| 1-month move | -20.65% | Captures the scale of the recent correction |
| 1-year move | +109.89% | Shows the bigger trend is still much stronger than the last few weeks suggest |
| March 19 intraday low in May futures | $65.55/oz | A useful reference for near-term support |
The recent decline in silver prices has been significant. On January 23, silver rose above $100 an ounce for the first time, while the Silver Institute later said the metal reached multiple record highs in January and breached the $100 level for the first time.
Since then, the correction has been sharp, with the front-month silver having dropped 8.2% in one session and more than 20% over seven straight sessions, while silver futures touched $65.55 intraday on March 19.
Silver, like gold, tends to struggle when the U.S. dollar strengthens, and Treasury yields rise. On March 23, the DXY dollar index rose to 99.7493, marking a 1.95% increase over the last month.
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield also rose to 4.37% on March 24, up 0.32 percentage points over the last month. Those moves matter because silver does not produce income, so higher yields and a firmer dollar make it less attractive in the short term.
The same pattern has repeatedly appeared in silver's recent price movements. For instance, earlier this month, both gold and silver experienced downward pressure as the U.S. dollar index rose and bond yields increased, despite heightened geopolitical risks.
In this case, macroeconomic factors outweighed the typical safe-haven appeal of these metals.
The recent Middle East shock did not lift silver as simply as many traders expected. Instead, the market focused on what higher oil prices might do to inflation and interest rates.
For instance, the selloff in gold and silver was driven by rising inflation expectations and diminished hopes for imminent rate cuts, with markets treating precious metals more like rate-sensitive assets than clean crisis hedges.
Silver is not only a monetary metal. It is also an industrial one, which gives it a more complex reaction function than gold. When growth worries rise, silver can come under heavier pressure because industrial demand becomes part of the debate.
The Silver Institute's 2026 outlook predicts a slight decline in industrial fabrication to approximately 650 million ounces this year, a four-year low, primarily due to reduced silver intensity in solar demand.
It can. The bearish case is not the whole story. Under the surface, silver still has several strong supports.
The most important medium-term support is the supply and demand. The Silver Institute reports that the global silver market is anticipated to remain in deficit for the sixth consecutive year in 2026, with a projected deficit of 67 million ounces, despite a forecast 1.5% increase in total supply this year.
The report also indicates that the market will continue to depend on metal released from above-ground inventories, highlighting that physical supply remains constrained.
This is significant because price declines typically behave differently in markets characterized by structural oversupply than in markets in deficit. While a deficit does not guarantee an immediate price rebound, it does strengthen the argument that silver's long-term outlook remains intact.
The Silver Institute also expects physical investment to rise 20% in 2026 to a three-year high of 227 million ounces. Western physical investment is expected to recover after three years of decline, aided by silver's strong long-term price performance and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty.
That is important because investment demand often becomes the balancing force when industrial demand cools.
The broader analyst community has not turned bearish on the year as a whole. In the 2026 LBMA Precious Metals Forecast Survey, the average forecast for silver was $79.57 an ounce, up 98% from the 2025 average actual price of $40.03.
That does not mean the market will move there quickly, but it does show that the latest correction has not erased the higher-price case for the year.
| Scenario | Price view | What would likely drive it |
|---|---|---|
| Bullish rebound | Back toward $75 to $80 | Softer dollar, cooler yields, renewed investment demand, and continued focus on the supply deficit |
| Base case | Choppy trade around $65 to $75 | Deficit supports the market, but macro pressure keeps rallies uneven |
| Bearish extension | Sustained break below $65 | Higher yields, stronger dollar, and worsening industrial-demand worries |
This table is our analytical framework based on the latest spot price, the March 19 low, the Silver Institute's deficit outlook, and the LBMA forecast average. It is not an official price target from any single institution.
Our base case is that silver prices will rise after the recent pullback, but this increase is unlikely to occur smoothly or be driven by a single headline. The most realistic scenario involves a period of choppy stabilization first, followed by recovery if yields stop rising and the dollar weakens.
The fundamental argument for silver remains strong, as the market is expected to remain in deficit, and investment demand is projected to strengthen by 2026.
They can, but the rebound will likely depend on macro conditions improving. Structural support from a 67 million ounce market deficit and stronger expected investment demand remains in place, but the dollar and yields are still a near-term headwind.
Silver fell because the market repriced rate expectations. A stronger U.S. dollar, rising bond yields, and inflation fears amid rising oil prices have led investors to shift away from non-yielding metals toward more liquid assets.
The data indicates a positive outcome; however, it is experiencing more volatility than in the past.
Silver's latest pullback has been painful, but it has not automatically destroyed the broader bullish case. The selloff has been driven primarily by rate adjustments, a stronger dollar, and concerns that higher oil prices could harm growth and delay easing.
Those are serious headwinds, but they differ from a collapse in the metal's long-term supply-and-demand story.
Thus, will silver prices go up after the latest pullback? Our answer is probably yes over time, but only if the macro backdrop becomes less hostile.
Disclaimer: This material is for general information purposes only and is not intended as (and should not be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by EBC or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.
