Published on: 2026-07-13
Updated on: 2026-07-13
ASML has guided Q2 net sales to €8.4bn to €9.0bn (midpoint €8.7bn) at a 51% to 52% gross margin [1].
In April it raised full-year 2026 guidance to €36bn to €40bn, from €34bn to €39bn [1][2].
Quarterly net bookings are no longer disclosed, so guidance, shipments and management commentary now carry the story [1][2].
Peer results have been strong, which supports the demand case but also raises the bar for ASML's print [3][4][5].
ASML is scheduled to report its second-quarter 2026 results before the European market opens on Wednesday, 15 July, followed by an investor call the same day.
It is among the most closely watched reports in the AI supply chain, because ASML is the only manufacturer of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems, the tools used to mass-produce the most advanced AI chips.
Consensus expects the quarter to land within ASML's own guidance, so attention has shifted to a harder question: whether AI-related spending is strong enough to support a further upgrade to the full-year outlook, so soon after the last one. Investors must weigh that without one of their traditional signals, because ASML no longer discloses quarterly net bookings.
| Metric | ASML Guidance | Q2 Analyst Estimate (USD)* | Q1 2026 Actual (EUR, US GAAP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total net sales | €8.4bn to €9.0bn | ~$10.28bn | €8.77bn |
| Gross margin | 51% to 52% | n/a | 53.0% |
| Basic EPS | n/a | ~$7.98 | €7.15 |
| Net income | n/a | n/a | €2.76bn |
| Full-year 2026 net sales | €36bn to €40bn | n/a | n/a |
*Consensus figures are third-party analyst estimates for the US-listed ADR in dollars [6], not from ASML; the guidance and reported figures are ASML's own [1].
Before comparing headlines: ASML guides in euros under US GAAP while much of the sell-side models the dollar ADR, so apparent discrepancies are usually a currency effect, not a change in fundamentals. Installed Base Management, the service and upgrade business at close to €2.5bn in Q1 [1], is the most stable part of the mix and steadies gross margin when system shipment timing is uneven.
In April, management lifted the 2026 sales range to €36bn to €40bn from €34bn to €39bn, held the margin band at 51% to 53%, and noted that demand was outpacing supply as customers accelerated their capacity plans [1][2]. That upgrade was well received, but it also raised the hurdle for July.
Against a 2025 base of €32.7bn [2], the €38bn midpoint implies growth of roughly 16% this year, and the phasing is instructive. First-half sales total about €17.5bn (€8.8bn in Q1 plus the €8.7bn Q2 midpoint), which leaves approximately €20.5bn to be delivered in the second half to reach that midpoint.
That back-half weighting means delivery timing and product mix could influence the share reaction more than a modest revenue beat. A quarter that merely meets guidance, with no change to the outlook, could disappoint a market positioned for a further upgrade.
For years, net bookings, the value of new orders, were the clearest forward indicator of ASML's future revenue. In the most recent disclosure, for Q4 2025, the figure was substantial: €13.2bn of net bookings, of which €7.4bn was EUV, taking year-end backlog to roughly €38.8bn, a value greater than ASML's total sales for 2025 [2].
From Q1 2026, however, ASML stopped publishing quarterly bookings, on the basis that large orders arrive unevenly and can distort the read on underlying momentum; backlog is now essentially an annual disclosure. The Q1 release contained no bookings figure, with management characterising order intake only as "very strong" [1].
That shifts the analytical burden. Demand must now be inferred from guidance, shipments, installed-base revenue and, importantly, what management says about the second half and 2027.
Its commentary has, in effect, taken on the weight of hard data. Because revenue recognition on some systems depends on shipment, installation and customer acceptance, with timing varying by system and customer, current order flow, no longer visible externally, helps underwrite 2027.
The broader equipment sector has performed strongly. Applied Materials reported record fiscal-Q2 revenue of $7.91bn, up 11% year on year, and now expects its semiconductor-equipment business to grow more than 30% in calendar 2026, up from "over 20%" in February, citing AI-driven logic, DRAM and packaging demand [3].
One day after ASML, TSMC reports on 16 July; as one of ASML's largest advanced-node customers, its capital-expenditure commentary will test ASML's second-half assumptions directly. TSMC has guided Q2 revenue to $39.0bn to $40.2bn at a 65.5% to 67.5% gross margin, with full-year dollar revenue growth above 30% [4].
Strong peer results are supportive but also lift sector expectations; ASML will need to show lithography demand is keeping pace with the tool chain, not lagging it.
The driver is not simply the number of fabs but lithography intensity: how many EUV exposures each wafer requires. AI accelerators are migrating from 4nm toward the more litho-intensive 3nm and 2nm, while DRAM makers replace some multi-patterning DUV with single-exposure EUV.
Both trends increase EUV passes per wafer, and each additional pass compounds ASML's addressable market. SEMI projects global 300mm fab-equipment spending rising 18% to $133bn in 2026 and 14% to $151bn in 2027, with memory-equipment spending projected to increase 29% to $52bn this year [5].
China. ASML expected China to represent around 20% of 2026 sales based on its opening system backlog, and set the guidance range wide enough to absorb a range of export-control outcomes [1][2]. Because that expectation rests on the opening backlog, the near-term sensitivity lies in management's commentary on licensing and shipment timing rather than in the Q2 figure itself.
High-NA EUV. ASML recognised revenue on two High-NA systems in Q4 2025 and expects further systems to be released to customers through 2026 as the technology qualifies [2]. This is more a 2027 consideration than a Q2 swing factor, but commentary on customer acceptance bears on the durability of the multi-year thesis.
| Scenario | The Q2 Signal | How the Market Might Read It |
|---|---|---|
| Bull | Sales at or above €9.0bn, margin holding, and a further guidance raise | AI capacity converting to revenue faster than modelled |
| Base | Upper half of guidance, annual range unchanged | Demand strong but largely priced in; muted reaction |
| Bear | Margin pressure, softer H2 language, or clearer China risk | Delivery cadence or mix less favourable than backlog implied |
After a strong peer season, ASML faces a demanding setup: a quarter that merely meets guidance could still disappoint a market positioned for a further upgrade. The signals most likely to shape the reaction are any change to the €36bn to €40bn range, the tone on second-half shipment cadence, and how management frames China and High-NA into 2027.
With bookings no longer disclosed, those cues, alongside shipments and installed-base revenue, are now the principal means of judging whether the EUV cycle is genuinely accelerating or simply clearing a bar that is already priced in.
ASML, "ASML reports €8.8 billion total net sales and €2.8 billion net income in Q1 2026" (Q1 2026 results, guidance and financial calendar), asml.com, 15 April 2026.
https://www.asml.com/en/news/press-releases/2026/q1-2026-financial-results
ASML, "ASML reports €32.7 billion total net sales and €9.6 billion net income in 2025" and Q4 2025 investor-call transcript, asml.com, 28 January 2026.
https://www.asml.com/en/news/press-releases/2026/q4-2025-financial-results ,
Applied Materials, "Applied Materials Announces Second Quarter 2026 Results," Investor Relations, 14 May 2026.
TSMC, Q2 2026 guidance issued with the Q1 2026 results and Q2 earnings date of 16 July 2026, Investor Relations.
https://investor.tsmc.com/english/quarterly-results/2026/q1 ,
SEMI, "SEMI Projects Double-Digit Growth in Global 300mm Fab Equipment Spending for 2026 and 2027," 1 April 2026, and "SEMI Projects 300mm Memory Equipment Investment to Surpass $50 Billion in 2026," 29 June 2026.
Benzinga, "ASML Holding Earnings Estimates, EPS & Revenue," accessed 13 July 2026.
