Published on: 2026-04-07
BRICS+ nations now hold 17.4% of global gold reserves, up from 11.2% in 2019. Combined holdings exceed 6,000 tonnes.
Central banks purchased 1,237 tonnes of gold in 2025, the third consecutive year above 1,000 tonnes. More than 40 central banks participated.
The dollar’s share of global foreign exchange reserves fell to roughly 57% by Q4 2025, its lowest level since 1994, according to IMF data.
Saudi Arabia holds only 2.6% of its reserves in gold. A move to just 5% from a single BRICS+ member of that size could absorb a full year of projected central bank demand.
Central banks bought more gold in the past three years than at any point in modern history, and the pace is not slowing down.
In 2025 alone, sovereign buyers added 1,237 tonnes to their reserves, a figure that exceeds the total annual mine production of several mid-sized gold-producing countries. This is not speculative demand, it is policy.
The buyers are concentrated, but the trend is broad. Russia, China, India, Turkey, and Poland have led the accumulation, but more than 40 central banks participated in 2025.
The buying has been one-directional and price-insensitive, meaning sovereign purchasers absorb supply regardless of whether gold trades at $4,000 or $5,000.
BRICS+ nations now hold over 6,000 tonnes of gold, representing approximately 17.4% of total global central bank reserves, up from 11.2% in 2019. Russia leads with 2,336 tonnes, China holds 2,298 tonnes, and India follows with 880 tonnes.
Together, Russia and China control roughly 74% of the bloc’s total gold holdings.
Between 2020 and 2024, BRICS member central banks purchased more than 50% of all gold bought by sovereigns globally.
In the first nine months of 2025, BRICS nations added 663 tonnes worth approximately $91 billion. Brazil made its first gold purchase since 2021, adding 16 tonnes in September 2025.
The structural shift traces back to 2022, when Western nations froze roughly $300 billion in Russian foreign exchange reserves following the invasion of Ukraine.
That action sent a clear message to every central bank holding dollar-denominated assets: reserves stored in another country’s financial system can be seized.
The response was immediate. Central bank gold purchases jumped from roughly 500 tonnes per year before 2022 to over 1,000 tonnes annually in each of the three years since. Gold stored in domestic vaults cannot be frozen or confiscated through the SWIFT system.
The gold accumulation is one side of the shift. The other is the declining dollar share of global reserves. IMF COFER data shows the dollar’s share fell from 71% in 1999 to roughly 57% by the end of 2025, its lowest reading since 1994.
Foreign central bank holdings of dollar-denominated assets have remained essentially flat since 2014. The decline in share is driven not by active selling but by faster growth in reserves held in euros, yen, gold, and a growing basket of non-traditional currencies.
The World Gold Council’s 2025 survey found that 73% of central bankers globally believe the dollar’s reserve share will decrease further over the next five years. And 43% of surveyed central banks plan to increase their gold holdings, both record-high readings.
Gold’s share of official reserve assets has more than doubled from below 10% in 2015 to over 23% today.
Much of this reflects gold’s price appreciation, but the direction is unmistakable: central banks are allocating a growing share of their portfolios to gold, and the Hormuz crisis has only reinforced the urgency.
Saudi Arabia holds approximately 323 tonnes of gold, just 2.6% of its total reserves. For a nation sitting on over $500 billion in reserves, that allocation is remarkably low.
A move to just 5% gold allocation would require purchases equivalent to the entire projected central bank demand for 2026 from a single buyer.
The Kingdom has not publicly announced plans to increase gold holdings, but its BRICS+ membership, its participation in the mBridge platform, and its deepening ties with Beijing all point toward a strategic repositioning that could logically include gold.
Gold is trading near $4,660 per ounce as of early April 2026, having surged over 60% in 2025 alone. The rally has pushed forecasts sharply higher, with Deutsche Bank targeting $6,000, JPMorgan at $6,300, Goldman Sachs at $5,400, and Societe Generale calling $6,000 conservative.
The World Gold Council projects 750 to 850 tonnes of central bank purchases in 2026, still far above historical norms.
That volume represents roughly 20% of annual global mine supply, absorbed as a one-directional flow regardless of price. This creates a structural floor that has made each correction shallower than the last.
Central bank demand is being reinforced by institutional flows. Gold ETF inflows accelerated through 2025, and China’s insurance sector has been allocated pilot positions in gold.
When sovereign, institutional, and retail buyers all move in the same direction simultaneously, the supply-demand picture tightens in ways standard price models fail to capture.
Three developments would accelerate the current trend. First, if China resumes public reporting of gold reserve additions and reveals larger-than-expected holdings, that would be an immediate catalyst, as China has not publicly reported purchases since May 2024.
Second, any formal gold allocation increase by Saudi Arabia or the UAE would confirm that the newest BRICS+ members are following the Russia-China playbook.
Third, watch for further declines in the dollar’s reserve share in the next IMF COFER release, since each incremental drop reinforces the narrative driving sovereign gold demand.
BRICS+ nations collectively hold over 6,000 tonnes of gold, approximately 17.4% of global central bank reserves. Russia leads with 2,336 tonnes, followed by China at 2,298 tonnes and India at 880 tonnes.
The freezing of Russia’s $300 billion in reserves in 2022 accelerated a trend already underway. Central banks are diversifying away from dollar-denominated assets toward gold, which cannot be frozen, sanctioned, or seized through international payment systems.
The dollar’s share fell to roughly 57% by Q4 2025, its lowest level since 1994 and down from 71% in 1999. The decline reflects gradual diversification into other currencies and gold, not a single dramatic shift.
Deutsche Bank targets $6,000 per ounce. JPMorgan forecasts $6,300. Goldman Sachs holds $5,400. Societe Generale calls $6,000 conservative. The median Reuters poll of 30 analysts sits at approximately $4,746.
Saudi Arabia holds only 2.6% of global gold reserves. A modest increase to 5% would require purchases equivalent to the entire projected central bank demand for 2026, making it one of the most significant potential catalysts in the gold market.
The shift from dollar reserves to gold is not a prediction but a trend, supported by three years of data, more than 40 participating central banks, and over 3,000 tonnes of metal moved into sovereign vaults since 2022.
The dollar remains dominant, but the direction is clear: central banks are building positions in an asset no foreign government can freeze, at a pace not seen in half a century. Gold at $4,660 reflects that reality, and the forecasts above $5,000 reflect where the market thinks this goes next.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making trading decisions.
