Published on: 2026-03-17
Henry Hub is projected to average modestly higher in 2026 than in 2025, but the move still looks controlled rather than explosive.
The benchmark for 2026 is still set by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. In its March 10, 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA projected the Henry Hub spot price to average $3.76/MMBtu in 2026, up from $3.53/MMBtu in 2025. Rounded, that is about $3.80 versus about $3.50.
The EIA cut its 2026 price forecast from the prior month because milder-than-expected February weather left more gas in storage than previously expected.
The annual average is still above last year’s, but the market has already moved well past January’s weather-driven spike. Henry Hub averaged $7.72/MMBtu in January 2026, then fell back to $3.62/MMBtu in February.
The EIA’s March 2026 base case is for Henry Hub to average $3.76/MMBtu in 2026, up from $3.53/MMBtu in 2025.
EIA’s current forecast shows U.S. dry natural gas production rising to 109.49 Bcf/d in 2026 from 107.72 Bcf/d in 2025.
EIA separately expects U.S.-marketed natural gas production to average about 120.8 Bcf/d in 2026, up from 118.5 Bcf/d in 2025.
LNG exports are still growing, with the EIA projecting 16.7 Bcf/d in 2026, up from 15.1 Bcf/d in 2025.
As of March 16, 2026, the Henry Hub futures strip still showed a clear winter premium, with April 2026 near $3.03 and December 2026 near $4.70.
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 forecast | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Hub annual average | $3.53/MMBtu | $3.76/MMBtu | Shows the official base-case direction |
| U.S. dry natural gas production | 107.72 Bcf/d | 109.49 Bcf/d | Confirms underlying supply growth |
| U.S. marketed natural gas production | 118.5 Bcf/d | 120.8 Bcf/d | Shows broader supply growth beyond dry-gas output |
| U.S. LNG exports | 15.1 Bcf/d | 16.7 Bcf/d | Export demand remains the main structural support |
| Latest working gas in storage | 1,848 Bcf | Within the five-year range as of March 6, 2026 | The storage backdrop is balanced, not panic-tight |
Sources: EIA Henry Hub annual data and March 2026 STEO Table 5a.
The table shows Henry Hub won't stay at January’s peak. EIA data: $7.72 in January, $3.62 in February. The market is normalizing after the winter spike.
| Scenario | Likely price path | What would drive it |
|---|---|---|
| Base case | Around $3.50 to $4.00/MMBtu on average | LNG demand rises, but production and storage remain adequate |
| Bullish case | Sustained move above $4.50/MMBtu | Hot summer, faster LNG ramp-up, weaker production growth, and lower storage |
| Bearish case | Slips toward $3.00 to $3.25/MMBtu | Mild weather, stronger associated gas, and above-normal inventory builds |
This scenario table uses the EIA’s March 2026 base case, the latest storage backdrop, and the current Henry Hub futures curve to illustrate a reasonable range of outcomes for 2026. It is an EBC framework, not an official EIA price range or confidence interval.
Our base case still points to a slightly firmer full-year average in 2026, but the path is likely to stay uneven. The most plausible support comes from winter seasonality and LNG demand, rather than from sustained year-round tightening in the domestic balance.
The best single-number forecast remains the EIA’s $3.76/MMBtu annual average for 2026, which can reasonably be rounded to about $3.80.
LNG exports, power demand, and weather risk will support Henry Hub. Production growth in the Permian, Haynesville, and Appalachia limits gains. Prices will be higher in 2026, but increases will be capped.
The fundamental bullish outlook for Henry Hub remains intact. U.S. LNG exports continue to grow and represent the largest source of demand growth in the U.S. gas market. According to the EIA’s March outlook, LNG gross exports are projected at 16.7 Bcf/d in 2026, up from 15.1 Bcf/d in 2025.
This matters because LNG exports link domestic gas prices to international markets. Although Henry Hub can be somewhat shielded from global shocks, growing export demand incrementally tightens the U.S. market balance.
More export capacity is still coming online. Cheniere reported first LNG from Corpus Christi Stage 3 Train 5 in February 2026, and EIA said Golden Pass Train 1 was expected to come online in March.
Natural gas demand from the electric power sector is also still rising. EIA expects gas use in power generation to average 36.2 Bcf/d in 2026, up from 35.8 Bcf/d in 2025.
Summer power burn is a key factor, especially if cooling demand exceeds normal levels.
The main reason Henry Hub does not look like a clean bull market in 2026 is that U.S. production is growing with it. EIA expects marketed gas production to average 120.6 Bcf/d in 2026 and 123.9 Bcf/d in 2027, with most of the increase coming from the Appalachia, Haynesville, and Permian regions.
This factor is often missed in 2026 outlooks. LNG demand is rising, but so is associated gas supply. The EIA expects higher oil prices to increase oil drilling in the Permian, producing more gas. The market is more resilient than if only dry gas had tightened.
Storage levels still point to a balanced market rather than a panic market. Working gas in storage was 1,848 Bcf for the week ending March 6, 2026, which was 141 Bcf above last year and 17 Bcf below the five-year average. That keeps inventories within the normal historical range heading into injection season.
Storage checks bullish narratives. The 2026 setup is strong LNG demand, near-normal storage, and recovering production after weather disruptions.
As of March 16, 2026, the Henry Hub futures curve still showed a clear winter premium rather than a year-round squeeze: April 2026 traded near $3.03/MMBtu, July near $3.43, November near $3.86, December near $4.70, and January 2027 near $5.10.
The shape of the curve points to softer spring pricing, firmer summer demand, and a clear winter premium. In other words, the market is still pricing seasonality more than a continuous shortage across all of 2026.
If traders expected a much tighter market throughout the whole year, the front end of the strip would likely be stronger than it is now.
The EIA projects Henry Hub to average $3.76/MMBtu in 2026, up from $3.53/MMBtu in 2025. Rounded, that means slightly higher on a full-year basis, not a major breakout by default.
The biggest bearish risk is higher-than-expected supply growth. The EIA predicts more output from the Permian, Haynesville, and Appalachia. Higher oil prices could add more associated gas through new oil drilling. The bullish case: weather or export shocks.
A hot summer or cold winter, more LNG exports, and lower storage could push Henry Hub above the base case.
The EIA says the Middle East conflict alone won't drive up U.S. gas prices. LNG plants are already running near full capacity, so there's little room for near-term export growth.
In conclusion, Henry Hub in 2026 looks set to hold a firmer annual floor than it did in 2025, but robust supply growth is still likely to cap the upside under most scenarios.
Our view stays direct: Henry Hub should average modestly higher on a full-year basis in 2026, but a much larger breakout would probably require a weather shock, a bigger LNG surprise, or a sharper-than-expected slowdown in supply growth.
Disclaimer: This material is for general information purposes only and is not intended as (and should not be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by EBC or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.
