Published on: 2026-04-02
SpaceX reportedly filed a confidential draft registration statement with the SEC on April 1, 2026.
Current reporting suggests a possible June or July IPO, with valuation estimates ranging from approximately $1.5 trillion to more than $1.75 trillion.
Reuters reported that SpaceX is expected to generate approximately $15 billion to $16 billion in revenue in 2025, along with around $8 billion in EBITDA. While these figures are strong enough to support premium pricing, they may not be sufficient to justify a public-market valuation that overlooks execution risks.
The common retail narrative is that SpaceX is a pure rocket monopoly. Institutional reality varies, as the SpaceX IPO will be priced mainly on whether Starlink can scale as a global connectivity platform.
Our base case is that the SpaceX IPO either prices below the highest reported valuation targets or faces meaningful first-year multiple compression after listing.
SpaceX reportedly submitted a confidential draft registration statement to the U.S. SEC on April 1, 2026, marking the transition of its IPO from speculation to a formal regulatory process. The anticipated timing for the IPO is still estimated to be between June and July, with discussions around its valuation ranging from approximately $1.5 trillion to over $1.75 trillion.
Reports also name Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Morgan Stanley among the lead banks. Still, investors will not have confirmed deal terms until the public filing appears.
The filing lands after a sharp late-March risk-off stretch for U.S. equities, while the 10-year Treasury yield remains around the low-4.3% area. That still matters for a deal like SpaceX because long-duration growth assets are highly sensitive to discount rates.
Based on a projected 2025 revenue range of $15 billion to $16 billion, a $1.5 trillion valuation implies a revenue multiple of approximately 94x. Valuing the company at $1.75 trillion implies a multiple of approximately 109-113 times its earnings. That is an unusually rich starting point for any mega-cap IPO.
The company's valuation in the private market has grown rapidly, reaching approximately $800 billion during the December 2025 tender, and then climbing to around $1.25 trillion following the xAI merger in February 2026. The upward trend is evident, but current discussions of the IPO valuation are still based on reported deal terms rather than a public prospectus.
Morningstar reported on a PitchBook analysis that estimates SpaceX's fair value to be between $1.1 trillion and $1.7 trillion. This range contributes to the ongoing debate but does not eliminate execution risks associated with the higher end of the IPO discussions.
In practical terms, the upper end requires continued Starlink strength and credible post-listing progress on Starship monetisation.
The December 2025 secondary tender valued SpaceX at about $800 billion, a level investors could defend more easily because it left less room for perfect execution across Starlink, Starship, and the xAI integration.
At $1.5 trillion to $1.75 trillion, buyers would be paying upfront for several businesses at once: Starlink's connectivity scale, Starship's future monetisation, and the still-unproven AI infrastructure angle introduced by the xAI combination. That pushes too much of the upside into day-one pricing.
| Scenario | Trigger condition | Probability | Valuation view at listing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price below the highest reported target, then re-rates | Institutional pushback on the xAI premium, governance discount, still-elevated rates backdrop | 55% | About $1.2 trillion to $1.5 trillion |
| Full bull case, lists near the top of the reported range | Strong Starlink execution, calmer macro conditions, credible AI infrastructure roadmap | 30% | About $1.5 trillion to $1.75 trillion at listing, with upside later if execution de-risks |
| Delayed or pulled IPO | Market conditions worsen or SEC review raises disclosure complexity | 15% | No 2026 listing, valuation resets in a later window |
*Methodology Note: The scenario probabilities are qualitative, not a model output. They are derived from four inputs:
Comparable IPO precedent
Current macro environment
Institutional sentiment signals
Valuation gap analysis
*These probabilities represent a structured analytical judgment and carry material uncertainty. Treat them as a directional framework, not a forecast.
In our analysis of the current interest rate environment and the mechanics of comparable mega-cap IPOs, we estimate a 55% likelihood that SpaceX will go public at a valuation closer to $1.2 trillion to $1.5 trillion, rather than at the most aggressive reported valuation.
This expectation is based on institutional reluctance to pay upfront for the xAI layer, as well as the typical governance discount that public investors apply when control remains concentrated among insiders.
This reflects the structural dynamics observed when Saudi Aramco priced its 2019 IPO at $1.7 trillion, falling short of its initial $2 trillion internal target after sovereign wealth funds expressed concerns over the governance terms.
What this path looks like for investors:
IPO prices at $700–$850/share range (implying a $1.2T–$1.5T valuation)
First-year trading is volatile as S&P 500 inclusion mechanics force passive buying within 6–12 months of listing.
Starlink subscriber growth doubled in 15 months, becoming the key quarterly data series that either justifies or erodes the multiple.
Our bull case, assigned 30% probability, requires three simultaneous catalysts:
Starlink significantly exceeds current expectations for revenue and profit margins in 2026.
A credible early proof-of-concept for the combined AI infrastructure thesis.
A calmer macro backdrop with lower rate pressure on long-duration growth assets.
In this scenario, SpaceX is listed near the top of the reported valuation range and then earns a higher market capitalisation over the next 12 to 18 months as execution de-risks the story. The key difference is that investors would be paying for evidence, not just ambition.
Rocket Lab (RKLB) and other publicly traded space infrastructure names would re-rate sharply in sympathy, as SpaceX's listing legitimizes the sector's multiple expansion story for institutional allocators who currently lack a pure-play orbital infrastructure benchmark.
The bear case is not about SpaceX's operating quality. It is about market mechanics. Even strong companies can face delayed or pulled listings when volatility spikes during the pre-roadshow window and investors refuse to absorb premium valuation risk.
A delayed or pulled IPO would not impair Starlink's subscriber growth. Still, it would force SpaceX back into private capital markets, and at $1.75T, the private market ceiling is effectively reached.
The dominant retail thesis is simple: SpaceX = rockets + Starlink = buy. Therefore, any price is justified.
However, the institutional read is harsher. Uniqueness explains access, not valuation discipline. Public buyers will not pay indefinitely for "rockets plus dreams."
They will pay for recurring ARPU, enterprise mix, government backlog, and operating leverage. They will also decrease valuations for businesses that require significant capital expenditures before cash flow visibility is fully disclosed.
This is where market mechanics matter. When the 10-year yield is around 4.3%, long-duration investments lose some of their valuation tolerance because a larger share of the equity case relies on cash flows expected several years in the future. Starlink benefits from this situation as it is already fully commercial.
Starship does not. Until the S-1 provides clearer monetization pathways, Starship is likely to be viewed as an out-of-the-money call option that investors want but do not wish to prepay fully.
SpaceX is a generational business wrapped in a structurally complex IPO, and the highest reported valuation range appears to embed years of execution into day-one pricing.
Our valuation view remains cautious at the reported $1.5 trillion to $1.75 trillion IPO range. The risk-reward becomes much more attractive if valuation lands closer to $1.0 trillion to $1.1 trillion, or if the public filing reveals a materially stronger Starlink profit engine than current reporting implies.
Below roughly $1.4 trillion, the Starlink business absorbs much of the valuation risk. Above roughly $1.6 trillion, investors are prepaying for Starship, the AI infrastructure thesis, and long-dated optionality that has not yet been fully disclosed in public filings.
Disclaimer: This material is for general information purposes only and is not intended as (and should not be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by EBC or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.
