Published on: 2025-12-11
Rumours of a SpaceX IPO have circulated for years, but recent developments have shifted the tone from "someday" to "we're actually getting close". Multiple outlets now report that SpaceX is preparing a 2026 listing, targeting a valuation north of $1 trillion and raising more than $25–30 billion, which would make it one of the largest IPOs in market history.
Crucially, Elon Musk himself has just replied "accurate" to an Ars Technica article arguing SpaceX is going public soon, effectively confirming that a listing is being actively prepared, even if the company still hasn't filed anything with the SEC.
For investors, this raises three big questions: how real is a SpaceX IPO in 2026, what's a sensible valuation range, and how do you actually get exposure without doing something silly at the top?
There is still no SEC registration statement and no official IPO timetable from SpaceX. What we do have is a pretty consistent picture from mainstream reporting:
SpaceX is working with banks on an IPO potentially launching in mid-to-late 2026.
The deal is framed as a $25–30+ billion raise, with valuation talk ranging from "over $1 trillion" to Musk's reported ambition for $1.5 trillion.
The IPO could be the second-largest in history after Saudi Aramco's roughly $1.7 trillion listing in 2019.
Additionally, Musk's own comment that the report SpaceX is planning an IPO "soon" is "accurate" is the closest thing to confirmation you ever get at this stage from him.
In short, plans can still shift due to markets, regulations, or Musk's whims. But the notion that SpaceX stays private for another five years now feels far less credible than it did just a month ago.
Across reports, the expected use of proceeds is fairly consistent:
Starlink expansion: Densifying the satellite constellation while expanding into maritime, aviation, and direct-to-mobile services.
Orbital infrastructure and data: Space-based data centres, satellite-connected AI and chip infrastructure, and more capacity for government and defence clients.
Starship and deep-space ambitions: Heavier lift capacity for Mars, lunar missions and bulk cargo to orbit.
This isn't a tidy, asset-light software IPO. It's a capital-intensive industrial and infrastructure story with a long growth runway and substantial hardware demands.
| Year / Event | Approx. valuation | Revenue / forecast | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mid-2024 secondary sales | $150–210B | ~Single-digit billions (est.) | Deep in private growth phase. |
| 2025 tender offer (summer) | ~$400B | Rapid growth from Starlink | Still no formal IPO plan announced. |
| 2025 insider sale process (Dec) | ~$800B | 2025 rev. est. ~$15B | Makes SpaceX one of the world’s most valuable private firms. |
| Rumoured IPO valuation (2026 target) | $1–1.5T | 2026 rev. est. $22–24B | Would be among the largest listings in history. |
Over the last 18–24 months, SpaceX's private valuation has moved from "mega-unicorn" to "shadow mega-cap":
Feb 2024: Internal deal at about $127 billion.
June 2024: Tender offer values SpaceX around $200–210 billion, as insider shares sell around $108–112 per share.
Nov 2024: New secondary talks point to roughly $255 billion.
May 2025: SpaceX tender offer at $185 per share implies a valuation near $350 billion.
Dec 2025: A secondary sale at $420 per share, implying valuations around or above $800 billion.
That's a staggering compounding of value for a private name. It serves as the essential starting point for any credible IPO valuation.
SpaceX's last few private transactions tell you how quickly the valuation has moved:
2023–mid-2024: Secondary sales reportedly valued SpaceX at around $150–210 billion.
Summer 2025: A $400 billion tender offer valuation.
December 2025: A new insider share sale targeting an $800 billion mark, effectively doubling the private value again.
That $800B level is the springboard for the $1–1.5T IPO valuation.
Additionally, recent reporting gives a decent look-through into the top line:
SpaceX is expected to generate about $15 billion of revenue in 2025, rising to $22–24 billion in 2026.
Much of that comes from Starlink, the satellite internet arm, with the launch business and government work making up the rest.
The company has reportedly been cash-flow positive for years, buying back shares from insiders twice a year to create liquidity.
So you're talking about a business doing low-to-mid tens of billions of revenue, not hundreds.
Put some simple multiples on that 2026 revenue range:
| Scenario | Implied equity value | 2026 rev (mid-point $23B) | Implied Price/Sales | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latest tender offer talk | $800B | $23B | ~34.8× | Where secondary markets are already circling. |
| Low end IPO chatter | $1.0T | $23B | ~43.5× | Would already be one of the richest large-cap valuations on the planet. |
| High end IPO chatter | $1.5T | $23B | ~65.2× | Musks's reported aspirational number; fully "story stock" territory. |
Even at $800B, you're paying mid-30s forward sales. At $1–1.5T, you're well into 40–65× revenue, justified only if you believe:
Starlink dominates global satellite broadband and B2B connectivity,
SpaceX can build a meaningful space-based data centre and compute business, and
Starship opens up entirely new revenue lines (deep space, point-to-point, defence).
That doesn't make those valuations impossible, but they are aggressive by any traditional metric.
Possibly. The current consensus from mainstream outlets is targeting mid-2026 for an IPO, with some reports stretching the window to "mid-to-late 2026".
Reports have hinted at New York listing venues, but no final decision has been made between NYSE and Nasdaq.
The offering size is framed as $25–30+ billion in primary and/or secondary stock, potentially beating Saudi Aramco's 2019 record in dollar terms.
However, Musk has always been cautious about public markets for his space businesses:
Over the last decade, he repeatedly said SpaceX would remain private as long as possible, to avoid quarterly pressure interfering with long-horizon projects.
On Starlink specifically, he told employees that an IPO would come only once revenue growth is "smooth and predictable", and later pushed that out to "2025 or later," with his CFO in 2024 saying an IPO would be in the "years to come."
So the 2026 window is not a binding promise. It's the first moment Musk seems comfortable even entertaining public markets, largely because:
Starlink has hit material scale.
SpaceX is now cash-flow positive.
Realistically, four big things could push an IPO back:
Market conditions
Regulatory or political friction
Execution risk
Musk's own preference
So treat 2026 as a credible working target, not a locked-in calendar date.
Specialist platforms and brokers run secondary tender offers in private names such as SpaceX, facilitating trades between existing shareholders and new investors.
Key points if you're even eligible:
Access is usually limited to accredited or professional investors.
Liquidity is thin, and pricing is opaque; you're often bidding into a small, brokered order book.
You are buying at late-stage valuations; if the IPO prices below, you're instantly underwater.
With current private valuations already approaching $800 billion, this isn't where value hunters typically find bargains.
This is where most non-accredited investors realistically play.
XOVR is a crossover ETF that explicitly includes private holdings such as SpaceX, xAI and OpenAI.
As of late 2024 / early 2025, SpaceX was disclosed as XOVR's top holding, with PR and research notes confirming that exposure.
XOVR is the only US-listed ETF that reports direct exposure to SpaceX.
XOVR trades around $20.3 per share, with a 1-year gain of roughly 6–7% and a year-to-date return above 10%.
You're getting a basket of private and public tech, not a pure SpaceX look-through, but it's one of the cleanest listed routes.
Destiny Tech100, a closed-end fund focused on late-stage venture investments, includes SpaceX, OpenAI, and other prominent holdings.
DXYZ trades around $31.85, with a 52-week range of $19.71–77.00. In other words, it is very volatile.
DXYZ gives you levered sentiment on big private names: it can rip when SpaceX or OpenAI headlines hit, and it can get crushed when enthusiasm fades. It's a trading vehicle, not a bond proxy.
No. SpaceX has not filed an S-1 registration statement and issued a formal announcement.
Current reports point to mid-to-late 2026, with some sources adding that it could slip to 2027 depending on market conditions and internal milestones.
SpaceX is targeting a $1–1.5 trillion valuation and a raise of over $25–30 billion, which would make it one of the largest IPOs in history.
Not on a regular brokerage account. SpaceX is private. Only employees and large investors typically access primary or internal tender rounds.
In conclusion, the SpaceX IPO story has finally moved from wishful thinking to concrete preparation, at least if the latest bank-mandate reports are right.
A 2026 listing at around $1–1.5 trillion would be a generational event and a test of how much public markets are willing to pay for Musk's long-term vision.
For now, though, it remains just that: a story. If you're reading this as an investor, the sensible approach is to track the fundamentals, the private valuations, and the regulatory backdrop, rather than trading on every headline.
Disclaimer: This material is for general information purposes only and is not intended as (and should not be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by EBC or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.
