Published on: 2026-02-25
CRM earnings report is scheduled today, Wednesday, February 25, 2026, after the market close, with the earnings call set for 5:00 p.m. ET.
The stock is currently trading around $185, going into the print, and the market is already braced for a sharp swing after the results. Options pricing implied the stock could swing by as much as about 9% by the end of the week.
The report is important because the stock's performance is influenced by more than just last quarter's results. It is trading on three forward signals that investors are watching closely:
AI demand that can be measured in paid deals, usage, and recurring revenue.
RPO and cRPO function as a forward-looking dashboard for contracted revenue.
FY27 guidance, which will shape the next valuation reset, whether it is up or down.
Analysts expect approximately $11.18 billion in revenue and around $3.05 in adjusted EPS for the quarter.
Salesforce's own Q4 guidance set the tone earlier in the quarter:
| Item | Company guidance | Midpoint | Market expectation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $11.13B to $11.23B | $11.18B | ~$11.18B |
| Non-GAAP EPS | $3.02 to $3.04 | $3.03 | ~$3.05 |
The setup is clear. Revenue is expected to land near the midpoint. The bigger swing factor is whether management can show that AI demand is turning into durable contract growth, not just interest.
In its last earnings update, Salesforce provided unusually specific AI metrics. These numbers are now the reference points that traders will use for comparison, even if they don't always make the headlines.
From the fiscal Q3 update, the company reported:
| AI signal | What Salesforce last reported | Why it matters for the stock reaction |
|---|---|---|
| AI and data ARR | Nearly $1.4B ARR (+114% YoY). | Investors want proof that AI is becoming a real revenue stream, not just a feature. |
| Paid deal count | Over 9,500 paid deals. | Paid deals reduce the risk that demand is only "pilots and trials." |
| Usage | 3.2 trillion tokens processed. | Usage can signal product pull-through, even before revenue shows up fully. |
| Expansion mix | 50% of bookings from existing customers. | Expansions often translate into better renewal odds and better margins over time. |
Key Takeaway
1.4B of AI and data ARR is still small next to a roughly $41.5B annual revenue run-rate. By simple math, that is about 3.4% of FY26 revenue guidance at the midpoint.
That's why the market places such importance on growth rates and attach rates, rather than solely on today's dollar amounts.
Many traders treat RPO as "boring accounting," but it often explains why the stock moves even when revenue meets expectations.
RPO (Remaining Performance Obligation) is contracted revenue that has been signed but not yet recognized.
cRPO (current RPO) refers to the amount expected to be recognized in the upcoming 12 months.
In fiscal Q3, Salesforce reported:
| RPO metric | Latest reported | Why it matters for tonight |
|---|---|---|
| cRPO | $29.4B | This is the "next 12 months" demand barometer. |
| Total RPO | $59.5B | This is the longer runway of contracted work. |
| cRPO vs Q3 revenue (derived) | About 2.85x | This suggests meaningful forward coverage for the next year. |
| Total RPO vs Q3 revenue (derived) | About 5.78x | This highlights long-duration contracts and stickiness. |
| Q4 cRPO growth guide | About 15% (reported basis) | This is the easiest "beat or miss" indicator for demand momentum. |
Key Takeaway
If cRPO growth lands near the guided pace and management sounds confident about AI attach rates, the stock can rally even if EPS is only in line.
If cRPO slows or the pipeline tone softens, the stock can sell off even on a headline beat.
Tonight's report includes the full-year fiscal results for 2026, but the market's focus will soon shift to FY27. That is where the stock either finds a new floor or loses it.
Analysts are projecting fiscal 2027 revenue of around $40 billion, with one estimate at approximately $45.8 billion.
A Practical FY27 Scenario Table (Based on FY26 Midpoint)
This table presents a straightforward math scenario, utilizing the FY26 midpoint of approximately $41.5 billion.
| FY27 revenue growth scenario | FY27 revenue (approx.) | What the market will likely ask next |
|---|---|---|
| 8% growth | ~$44.82B | "Is the core business slowing, or is this just budget caution?" |
| 10% growth | ~$45.65B | "Is AI helping enough to hold double-digit growth?" |
| 12% growth | ~$46.48B | "Is this an early re-acceleration, and is it sustainable?" |
Our Take
The market will respond positively to FY27 guidance that appears "clean," meaning that cRPO trends align with it and that it does not require margin concessions to achieve the targets.
The options market has been pricing a large move, suggesting the stock could swing by as much as about 9% by the end of the week.
With CRM trading around $185 into the release, a 9% move implies a rough range of:
Downside: about $168.73
Upside: about $202.11
The latest daily technical snapshot (as of late February 24) showed mixed momentum, with several indicators leaning positive while the longer-term moving averages still sit overhead.
| Indicator | Latest value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 54.968 | Neutral |
| MACD (12,26) | 0.29 | Buy |
| ADX (14) | 33.378 | Sell (trend strength remains heavy) |
| ATR (14) | 3.2931 | Higher volatility |
| MA20 (simple) | 182.50 | Buy |
| MA50 (simple) | 185.05 | Buy |
| MA200 (simple) | 206.17 | Sell (major resistance zone) |
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| Support 1 (S1) | 183.67 |
| Pivot | 185.34 |
| Resistance 1 (R1) | 186.22 |
| Resistance 2 (R2) | 187.89 |
| Resistance 3 (R3) | 188.77 |
If the stock holds above the 183 to 185 area after the release, the market is more likely to accept the guidance and wait for follow-through.
If it breaks below S1 and cannot reclaim it, traders often look for a larger air pocket, especially with options pricing a wide weekly move.
This scenario occurs if AI ARR and paid deal momentum remain strong, cRPO growth stays steady, and FY27 guidance looks consistent.
What we expect:
The stock challenges the upper pivot resistance zone near $188 to $189, and it can extend toward the low-$200s if guidance lands well.
This scenario occurs when Q4 is fine, but FY27 guidance is conservative, or when management sounds cautious about budgets.
What we expect:
A sharp first move, then a return to a range around $183 to $189, while traders wait for the next data point.
This scenario happens if cRPO growth slows more than expected, or if guidance implies weaker growth that is not offset by margin confidence.
What we expect:
A break below $183.67, with the market starting to price in the lower end of the implied weekly range
Salesforce will report after the close on February 25, 2026, and the call will be at 5:00 p.m. ET.
RPO represents contracted revenue that has not yet been recognized, while cRPO refers to the portion expected to be recognized within the next 12 months. Investors watch cRPO growth because it is a practical signal for next year's revenue direction.
Investors want evidence that AI is turning into repeatable revenue, including growth in AI and data ARR and continued growth in paid AI deals.
In conclusion, CRM earnings today will likely be determined by what management says about next year, not just what it reports for the last quarter.
The market already has a clear set of yardsticks: strong AI demand signals, a growing RPO base, and FY27 guidance that shows confidence without sacrificing profitability.
If cRPO momentum continues and FY27 guidance remains steady or improves, the stock has the potential to reset higher from this point. If guidance is cautious and RPO tone softens, the market can quickly re-price the stock lower because earnings-day volatility is already high.
Disclaimer: This material is for general information purposes only and is not intended as (and should not be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by EBC or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.
