Published on: 2026-02-25
NVIDIA will host its earnings call at 2:00 p.m. Pacific time (5:00 p.m. Eastern time) on February 25, 2026, after the market closes. NVIDIA earnings today are not just another quarterly update. They are the main event in the larger AI market, and the market is responding accordingly.
NVDA stock is heading into the release near $192.85, with a market cap of around $4.53 trillion and trading volume that has remained unusually heavy in recent sessions.
When a stock is this large, this liquid, and this tied to a single theme, the move is rarely about one line item. The reaction typically arises from a brief list of signals that indicate whether demand is still increasing and whether profits can keep up.
NVIDIA will host its earnings call at 2:00 p.m. Pacific time (5:00 p.m. Eastern time) on February 25, 2026.
NVIDIA will report fourth-quarter and full-year fiscal 2026 results for the period ended January 25, 2026, and management will take questions on a live call immediately after the numbers are released.
Additionally, NVIDIA said it will provide written CFO commentary ahead of the call, which can shape the first wave of after-hours trading.
| Metric | Company guide | Implied range | Street expectation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $65.0B ±2% | $63.7B to $66.3B | ~$65.7B to ~$66.1B |
| Non-GAAP gross margin | ~75.0% ±0.5% | ~74.5% to ~75.5% | "Near 75%" |
| Adjusted EPS | — | — | ~$1.52 to ~$1.53 |
In most cycles, the market focuses on whether a company beats consensus. For NVDA, the market also watches whether the company beats its own guidance and whether management raises the bar again.
Two key anchors are shaping expectations:
NVIDIA's Q4 revenue guidance has a midpoint of $65.0 billion.
Analyst forecasts for the quarter estimate revenue at around $66.1 billion, close to the upper end of the guided range.
That combination sets a higher bar. If the market is already leaning toward the top of the guidance range, a "small beat" can still sell off if forward guidance is not strong.
For NVDA, "in-line" revenue can still lead to a selloff if investors were quietly positioned for a beat. The market tends to react in layers:
Below $63.7B: the quarter missed the guide, and the stock will react sharply.
$63.7B to $66.3B: technically within the guide, but the tone of next-quarter outlook becomes the deciding factor.
Above $66.3B: a clear beat versus the high end, which usually supports a positive reaction if margins hold.
| Revenue by market ($M) | Q1 FY26 | Q2 FY26 | Q3 FY26 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Data Center | 39,112 | 41,096 | 51,215 |
| Gaming | 3,763 | 4,287 | 4,265 |
| Pro Visualization | 509 | 601 | 760 |
| Auto | 567 | 586 | 592 |
| OEM & Other | 111 | 173 | 174 |
| Total | 44,062 | 46,743 | 57,006 |
NVDA is still priced like a data center business, not a "chip company in general." That is why the market often evaluates the stock based on data center performance, even when overall revenue appears satisfactory.
The market frequently focuses on data center performance when trading the stock, even when overall revenue appears stable.
In the last quarter, NVIDIA reported total revenue of $57.0 billion in Q3 FY26, with data center revenue of $51.2 billion. This highlights how concentrated the company's business has become.
If Q4 revenue is around $65B to $66B, the market will still want to see data centers doing most of the heavy lifting, because that is where demand is expected to be strongest.
NVIDIA guided non-GAAP gross margin around 75.0%, plus or minus 50 basis points.
Although it may seem like a narrow range, this is important because investors are closely monitoring whether the latest product cycle can grow without compromising profitability.
Here is how to interpret the print:
When the metric is around 75% or higher, the market perceives the company's scale as secure, increasing the likelihood of a premium valuation.
However, when it falls below approximately 74.5%, investors may begin to question whether issues with pricing, supply costs, or product mix are negatively affecting profit margins. This can adversely affect the NVDA stock price, even if revenue remains strong.
This is the biggest one. NVIDIA can print a strong quarter and still see the stock drop if the next-quarter guide suggests growth is slowing faster than investors expected.
NVDA is famous for big numbers, so the stock often trades on the next revenue guide more than on the quarter just reported.
Investors are currently very concerned about how long the AI buildout will continue at its present pace.
NVIDIA returned $37.0 billion to shareholders during the first nine months of fiscal 2026 through stock repurchases and dividends. It ended Q3 with $62.2 billion remaining under its repurchase authorization.
Those numbers matter for two reasons:
They help dampen downside when sentiment turns risk-off.
They signal management's confidence in long-term cash generation.
Ahead of NVIDIA earnings today, options traders have been pricing a move in the 6% to 6.3% range.
Using the latest close near $192.85, that implies a rough earnings window of:
Downside (about -6%): ~$181.28
Upside (about +6%): ~$204.42
One more detail matters here. Investors' options preview noted implied volatility around 75%, which is meaningfully higher than its usual level in that framework.
That is another way of saying the market expects a real reaction, not a quiet report.
The technical picture going into earnings is constructive. Momentum is positive, and price is sitting above key moving averages, which often means dips can be bought if guidance is not disappointing.
| Metric | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Last price | $192.85 | The stock is trading near a key pivot zone going into earnings. |
| RSI (14) | 59.727 | Momentum is positive and not extreme. |
| MACD (12,26) | 1.42 | Momentum is bullish. |
| ADX (14) | 28.178 | Trend strength is meaningful, so moves can follow through. |
| ATR (14) | $1.9214 | Day-to-day volatility is moderate, but earnings can overwhelm ATR. |
| MA20 (simple) | $191.08 | Short-term trend support. |
| MA50 (simple) | $187.90 | Medium-term support and a common "buy-the-dip" line. |
| MA200 (simple) | $186.33 | The long-term trend anchor for many funds. |
| Level set | Support | Pivot | Resistance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Classic pivots | $192.24 | $192.64 | $193.11 |
| Fibonacci pivots | $192.31 | $192.64 | $192.97 |
If the price holds above the $191–$192 zone after the initial reaction, it usually signals that buyers are comfortable with the guidance.
If the price drops below the $186–$188 range and fails to recover, it usually suggests that the market outlook is not particularly strong.
The earnings call is scheduled for 5:00 p.m. Eastern time on February 25, 2026.
NVIDIA has guided its revenue to $65.0 billion, with a possible 2% variance. This means the expected revenue could range between $63.7 billion and $66.3 billion.
Options pricing indicates an expected move of approximately 6% to 6.3% around the earnings announcement.
The biggest swing factor is the next-quarter guidance, followed by gross margin and data center performance.
In conclusion, NVIDIA's earnings today could significantly impact NVDA stock. This is due to high expectations; however, investors still seek confirmation that demand continues to grow and that margins remain stable as the product cycle expands.
The market is not only asking whether NVIDIA beat the quarter. The market is questioning if the next quarter can exceed expectations and if the company can sustain its profit margins as it grows.
Disclaimer: This material is for general information purposes only and is not intended as (and should not be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by EBC or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.
