Published on: 2026-01-30
Exxon Mobil reports fourth-quarter 2025 results today, and the setup is obvious. Oil has jumped to multi-month highs on renewed geopolitical risk, while XOM stock has already been pushing higher into the print.
Options pricing is implying a relatively modest "earnings-sized" move for XOM. With XOM around $140.51, that is roughly ±$3.09, or about $137.42 to $143.60.
Therefore, investors are seeking not only strong financial metrics but also evidence that Exxon can continue to grow earnings even as crude prices decline and refining margins fluctuate.
XOM plans to post its Q4 2025 results at about 5:30 a.m. Central Time (6:30 a.m. ET) on Friday, January 30, 2026, via its website and an 8-K filing.
The earnings call starts at 8:30 a.m. Central Time (9:30 a.m. ET) on the same day, with prepared remarks available earlier in the morning.
The key presenters include CEO Darren Woods, CFO Kathy Mikells, and other senior leadership.
A transition for the CFO is scheduled, with Neil Hansen assuming the role effective February 1, 2026, which may affect the company's 2026 priorities.
XOM's 8-K outlined estimated directional impacts relative to Q3 2025.
| Driver (vs Q3) | Expected direction | Estimated impact range |
|---|---|---|
| Liquids prices (Upstream) | Headwind | -$1.2B to -$0.8B |
| Gas prices (Upstream) | Mixed | -$0.3B to +$0.1B |
| Industry margins (Upstream) | Tailwind | +$0.3B to +$0.7B |
| Industry margins (Energy Products) | Headwind | -$0.4B to -$0.2B |
| Industry margins (Chem/Specialty) | Modest tailwind | $0.0B to +$0.2B |
| Scheduled maintenance (multiple segments) | Headwind | Negative ranges disclosed |
| Year-end inventory effects | Mixed | Mixed ranges disclosed |
| Item | Market baseline (approx.) | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| EPS | $1.68 to $1.70 | A small EPS beat rarely carries the day if margins or cash flow disappoint. |
| Revenue | About $81B | Revenue helps frame realised prices and downstream mix, but it is not the main swing factor for XOM. |
Street forecasts cluster around about $1.68 to $1.70 in EPS, with revenue around $81 billion for the quarter.
The main priorities are cash flow and segment commentary, as XOM tends to trade on the durability of returns and capital discipline, not one-quarter optics.
Brent and WTI have been trading near four-month highs as markets priced a geopolitical risk premium tied to rising US-Iran tensions.
That matters because XOM often behaves like a "macro plus execution" stock.
When crude rallies into earnings, investors demand confirmation that the company is capturing that macro tailwind through realised prices, volumes, and clean cash conversion.
Unlike many sectors, XOM provided a clear overview of the variables expected to affect Q4 results compared to Q3.
For context, Exxon's filing before the results indicated that lower liquids prices could decrease upstream earnings by approximately $800 million to $1.2 billion compared to the previous quarter, with fluctuations in gas prices also impacting the results.
That means the market will judge the print against a framework the company itself provided, not just against consensus.
XOM's daily RSI is around 75, which is typically associated with overbought conditions. At the same time, trend indicators continue to point upward.
When a stock is extended, a "good" report can still trigger profit-taking if the call sounds defensive, or if cash flow falls short of what the price action was already implying.
Upstream remains the primary driver of earnings, making it the section that typically moves the stock first.
In Q3 2025, Exxon reported:
Upstream earnings: about $5.7 billion (third-quarter earnings)
Net production: about 4.8 million oil-equivalent barrels per day
Records in key growth areas, including Guyana's gross production above 700,000 barrels per day and Permian output near 1.7 million oil-equivalent barrels per day.
Ahead of today's earnings, XOM guided that lower liquid prices could reduce upstream earnings by roughly $0.8 billion to $1.2 billion versus Q3, with gas prices adding another range of about -$0.3 billion to +$0.1 billion.
What Traders Will Listen For:
Whether volumes, mix, and operational execution offset the liquids-price headwind.
Whether Guyana and the Permian continue to show cost and productivity advantages that protect cash margins.
Exxon reports its refining and fuels under Product Solutions, and quarterly results may vary depending on margin conditions.
In Q3 2025, Exxon highlighted improving refining results, with Energy Products earnings rising versus the prior quarter, supported by higher volumes and margin strength.
However, XOM estimated industry margins could impact Energy Products by roughly -$0.4 billion to -$0.2 billion versus Q3.
Thus, the market will focus on two things:
Margin capture: Did Exxon's system outperform peers in a softer pricing environment?
Operational reliability: Did downtime, maintenance, or unplanned disruptions hurt throughput?
Chemicals rarely grab the headlines, but they can change the earnings mix at the margin, especially when oil prices are not doing all the work.
Exxon's Q3 results referenced weak chemical margins, describing them as near the bottom of the cycle, which weighed on year-to-date earnings.
For context, XOM flagged a potential $0.0 billion to +$0.2 billion impact from industry margins in Chemical and Specialty Products, which suggests the company was not signalling a collapse.
However, markets usually want more than "not worse." They want evidence that the trough is behind the segment, particularly because chemicals can be a multi-quarter drag when global capacity is high.
For many long-term investors, Exxon's cash return story is the anchor.
In Q3 2025, Exxon reported:
$14.8 billion in cash flow from operations
$9.4 billion returned to shareholders (dividends plus buybacks)
A fourth-quarter dividend was raised to $1.03 per share.
Exxon's updated corporate plan also reiterated that the company expects to repurchase $20 billion of shares and to maintain that pace through 2026, assuming reasonable market conditions.
Therefore, if the quarter is "fine" but cash flow is stronger than expected, XOM can still rally because buybacks and dividends look safer. If cash flow fails to meet expectations, the market may become anxious quickly, given already high valuation expectations.
XOM flagged potential impairments and other identified items as part of its Q4 considerations.
These elements are frequently non-operational, yet they can impact the stock as traders evaluate if the company's capital allocation is becoming more restrictive or more cautious during the quarter.
Although today's focus is on Q4, investors are also seeking evidence that Exxon's 2030 plan is feasible.
In its updated corporate plan, Exxon said it expects:
$25 billion in earnings growth and $35 billion in cash flow growth from 2024 to 2030 on a constant price and margin basis
A larger structural cost savings target
Continued focus on advantaged assets such as the Permian, Guyana, and LNG.
If management links Q4 execution to those long-term targets in a practical way, it can support the stock even if the quarter is not perfect.
Ahead of earnings, XOM's technical picture has been strong, but also stretched.
| Indicator | Level | What it implies |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 74.99 | Momentum is strong, but the stock is technically overbought. |
| MA20 (simple) | 138.02 | Trend support is rising quickly; pullbacks into this area often attract buyers in strong trends. |
| MA50 (simple) | 135.62 | Medium-term trend support; a break below can shift the post-earnings tone. |
| MA200 (simple) | 125.74 | Long-term bull trend line; far below spot, which shows how extended the run has been. |
| Classic pivot | 140.36 | Immediate “line in the sand” around current trading levels. |
| Classic S1 / R1 | 139.57 / 140.95 | First support and resistance bands for the first post-earnings reaction. |
If earnings are clean and the guidance tone is steady, traders often use the first pullback into pivot support as the test.
If the call introduces uncertainty around downstream margins or buybacks, an overbought RSI makes it easier for sellers to press the stock into the $138 to $136 moving-average zone.
Yes. XOM plans to publish Q4 2025 results at about 5:30 a.m. Central Time (6:30 a.m. ET) on January 30, 2026, followed by an earnings call at 8:30 a.m. Central Time (9:30 a.m. ET).
Consensus estimates cluster around $1.68 to $1.70 for Q4 2025
Exxon has indicated that declining liquids prices may reduce upstream earnings by approximately $800 million to $1.2 billion compared to the previous quarter.
Upstream performance is generally the most significant factor, especially the combination of production volumes and realized oil and gas prices.
In conclusion, XOM earnings today are not only about whether Exxon beats consensus. They need to show steady upstream performance, reliable cash flow, and disciplined shareholder returns amid a challenging commodity price landscape.
If those three pieces align, XOM stock can move higher even after a strong run. If any one of them cracks, especially cash flow, the reaction can be sharper because expectations are already elevated.
Disclaimer: This material is for general information purposes only and is not intended as (and should not be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by EBC or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.
