Published on: 2026-02-06
Silver is trading near $71 after one of the most violent price resets the market has seen in years. Spot silver recently printed a 52-week high of $121.67, and it has since been hit by forced selling, a stronger dollar, and rapid position unwinds that tend to show up first in silver because the market is smaller and less liquid than gold's.
The question now is straightforward but not easy: does silver have the fuel to rebound, and can it realistically reclaim $100? The answer depends on two factors that do not always change in unison.
The first is the fundamental backdrop, where industrial demand remains structurally essential. The second is the macro and positioning backdrop, where liquidity and leverage can overpower fundamentals for weeks at a time.
| Date | Market snapshot | What it signaled |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | Peak near $121.67 | A blow-off move that left little technical support underneath. |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Heavy drop and large daily range | Forced selling and liquidation dominated price action. |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Spot near $71 with intraday low near $64 | Volatility stayed elevated, and dip bids became selective. |
The speed of the move is the story. Data shows silver reached $121.67 on January 29, 2026, and then fell sharply into early February, including a massive one-day drop on February 5.
Spot silver: about $71.21/oz (bid)
Recent peak: about $121/oz
52-week range (futures reference): $29.115 to $121.785
The fall was roughly 35% from the late-January peak to early-February lows, after a run that was already unusually steep.
This is important for the $100 debate because a market that has dropped from $120 to $70 doesn't bounce back in a straight line. Typically, it needs to rebuild liquidity, fix its positioning, and establish new support levels before entering the next significant upward movement.
Regardless, a rise from $71 to $100 is roughly a 41% increase. That is a significant move for most assets, but silver has already demonstrated that it can move that distance quickly in both directions during volatile periods.
Silver already showed it can trade well above $100 during the late-January spike.
The harder question is whether it can reclaim $100 and hold it without needing another speculative squeeze.
For that to happen, three conditions usually need to align.
A market can rally with high volatility, but it rarely holds a new plateau while daily ranges stay extreme. Currently, the volatility backdrop remains elevated.
If the dollar stabilizes and yields stop pressuring metals, silver can start to trade its own supply story again. The recent downdraft was closely tied to macro risk rotation and dollar dynamics, suggesting the market is still trading silver like a high-beta macro asset.
The Silver Institute data describes a multi-year deficit and record industrial demand.
Price tends to respond more durably when the tightness is visible in availability, delivery timing, or sustained investor allocation, not only in annual balance tables.
A move to $100 requires milestones. Traders often watch these round-number zones because they influence behaviour and stop levels.
$75 to $80: first recovery zone, where sellers often reappear
$90: psychological level, often tied to media coverage and momentum
$100: major headline level, where profit-taking can be aggressive
This is not a prediction; instead, it describes how markets frequently behave around significant numbers.
Silver's smaller market size makes it prone to sharp swings, and investors were reducing risk as money rotated elsewhere.
That dynamic is familiar: when margin pressure hits, silver often becomes the "sell what you can" metal before it becomes the "sell what you want" metal.
Silver's downdraft also relates to a stronger dollar impulse, which mechanically pressures metals priced in dollars and changes hedging behavior across commodities.
Even if the long-term case for metals remains intact, a short-term dollar bid can still trigger fast de-risking in futures and leveraged products.
Additionally, liquidation selling from China was part of the explanation for the late-week drop, with futures sliding as much as 13% at one point.
For example, China's export-related policy headlines and the risk of market fragmentation have contributed to extreme price behavior.
Finally, the recent surge in gold and silver was a speculative frenzy that reversed suddenly, linking the correction to a stabilizing narrative about the dollar related to the Fed leadership discussion.
When a market starts trading on headlines and leverage, it can gap in both directions even if the underlying physical story changes very little.
If you cut through the noise, the long-term case for silver often boils down to one key point: demand has consistently outpaced supply.
The Silver Institute reported:
Industrial demand: 680.5 million ounces in 2024, a record for the fourth straight year
Market deficit: 148.9 million ounces in 2024, the fourth consecutive annual deficit
Total demand: 1.16 billion ounces in 2024
Mine production: about 819.7 million ounces in 2024 (mostly flat)
Recycling: about 193.9 million ounces in 2024 (up 6%)
Silver is not only a "safe haven" trade. It is also an industrial metal. Demand is tied to power grids, electronics, and clean energy.
The Silver Institute noted that green economy uses contributed to demand growth, including:
Grid infrastructure
Electric vehicles and charging
Photovoltaics
End uses linked to artificial intelligence-related electronics demand
It also highlighted that China's newly added solar capacity reached 278 gigawatts in 2024, which helps explain why silver demand has stayed firm.
In short, deficits don't ensure a continuous upward trend, but they can make it harder to maintain dips if physical demand remains steady.
Silver typically requires a combination of macroeconomic support and new buying interest to thrive. However, there's a faster way for silver prices to rise again.
This is the uncomfortable truth: the fastest route back to $100 is usually momentum, not slow fundamentals. We already saw what momentum can do on the way up and down.
| Indicator | Reading | What it suggests |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 37.562 | Weak momentum, not yet “strong” bounce |
| MACD (12,26) | -3.509 | Downward momentum still present |
| 200-day MA (simple) | 96.314 | Long-term trend level far above price |
| Classic pivot R3 | 78.007 | First upside zone traders may watch |
Silver's short-term technical picture has weakened after the pullback.
Investing's Silver futures technical page shows:
RSI (14): 37.562 (Sell)
MACD (12,26): -3.509 (Sell)
200-day simple moving average: 96.314 (Sell)
Summary signal: Strong Sell (at that snapshot)
From the same technical snapshot, classic pivot points include:
S1: 65.861
Pivot: 67.917
R1: 71.934
R3: 78.00
| Scenario | What it looks like | What could cause it |
|---|---|---|
| Fast rebound | Silver regains $80, then $90 quickly | Softer USD, calmer rates outlook, renewed buying |
| Range trade | Silver holds a wide band, with sharp swings | Volatility stays high, but no clear macro driver |
| Deeper pullback | Silver breaks key supports and retests lower zones | More margin pressure, stronger USD, risk-off liquidation |
These scenarios are not forecasts. They are decision frameworks.
Here is a practical checklist for traders to bookmark.
US dollar trend
US real yields and rate expectations
Risk sentiment across equities and credit
Changes to margin and trading conditions in futures markets
Signs of renewed Chinese trading activity
Evidence that industrial demand remains firm (solar, EV, electronics)
CME has also flagged a 100-ounce silver futures product (noted as pending regulatory review) with a targeted launch date shown as February 9 on its silver page. Smaller contract sizes can broaden participation over time.
Silver prices could increase soon if selling pressure decreases and the dollar's influence on the market diminishes. The market remains volatile, with daily signals leaning bearish, so rebounds may be sharp but uneven until price stabilizes above key technical levels.
Silver fell because leverage and position unwinds hit a smaller, less liquid market quickly. Furthermore, risk rotation, dollar strength, and liquidation flows can overshadow fundamentals in the short term.
It is possible because silver has already traded above $100 in this cycle, with peaks around $121. The key issue is what drives the move: steady demand plus a supportive macro backdrop, or another momentum surge.
Industrial demand hit a record 680.5 million ounces in 2024, and the Silver Institute reported a 148.9 million ounce deficit for 2024. Those figures suggest the market remains structurally tight over time, even if prices swing violently.
In conclusion, silver does not require a perfect world to rally, but it does need an apparent reason for buyers to commit. Today's price near the low $70s shows how quickly speculative heat can leave the market.
A return to $100 is possible because silver has already reached triple digits in this cycle. The more realistic path involves two things happening together: the forced selling phase ends, and a new wave of demand arrives, whether from improving macro conditions, tight physical supply, or renewed momentum.
Meanwhile, the long-term backdrop still includes structural deficits and record industrial demand, which is not the profile of a market with "no floor."
Disclaimer: This material is for general information purposes only and is not intended as (and should not be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by EBC or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.
