Published on: 2026-02-05
Amazon is set to report fourth-quarter 2025 results today, and the setup is straightforward. Investors are discussing whether AMZN can continue to grow profits while heavily investing in AI infrastructure, and if AWS is recovering quickly enough to justify this investment cycle.
Expectations are elevated; the options market anticipates nearly a 7% move in either direction by the end of the week following the results. AMZN stock closed around $232.99 in the latest session, after a sharp down day, with the stock still well below its 52-week high of $258.60.
Therefore, Investors will be listening closely to management's tone on demand, costs, and spending plans, because guidance often matters as much as the headline beat.
Amazon will discuss its fourth-quarter 2025 results today, February 5, 2026, with a conference call scheduled for 2:00 p.m. PT / 5:00 p.m. ET.
| Event | Pacific Time | Eastern Time |
|---|---|---|
| Earnings release | After market close | After market close |
| Earnings call | 2:00 p.m. (Feb 5) | 5:00 p.m. (Feb 5) |
The practical takeaway is that the numbers hit U.S. markets in the afternoon, but Asia desks will be reacting before breakfast.
| Line item | Consensus baseline (approx.) | Why it can move the stock |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $211.4B to $211.6B | Confirms holiday demand and services mix strength. |
| EPS | About $1.97 | A small beat matters less than margin and guidance tone. |
| AWS growth bar | Investors are watching for upside versus low-20% expectations | AWS sets the valuation narrative because it drives a large share of operating profit. |
| Advertising revenue | $24.8B to $25.7B | Ads are high-margin, so upside here can lift operating income confidence. |
Consensus expectations center on record revenue and solid earnings growth.
Investors are broadly looking for:
Revenue around $211.55 billion
EPS around $1.97
Investors are closely monitoring the initial outlook for Q1, targeting $175.6 billion in revenue and an EPS of $1.73 as the benchmark for the next quarter.
The market views AWS as a key player due to the increasing demand for AI infrastructure. The ability to manage capacity and maintain pricing discipline will determine whether this growth translates into profit or merely results in higher spending.
For context, AWS performed well last quarter, and Amazon has indicated plans to expand capacity in the future. As a result, investors are now seeking confirmation that this momentum is continuing.
Investors are closely monitoring capital expenditures and AI spending because they seek proof that additional funds are being converted into actual paid workloads, rather than simply increasing depreciation.
Thus, investors are likely to press management on cloud growth and future spending plans during the call.
Amazon is implementing primary cost-cutting measures, including its largest-ever corporate layoff plan, which will result in the elimination of 16,000 jobs following the previous cut of 14,000 roles in October.
When a company is simultaneously cutting costs and spending, the guidance provided must be clear, as investors will assume that leadership is trying to protect margins while also funding the next growth cycle.
AWS is still the key engine for valuation, and the market is treating it like the main exam question.
In the most recent quarter, Amazon reported AWS sales of $33.0 billion, up 20% YoY, along with AWS operating income of $11.4 billion.
As we approach Q4, market sentiment suggests high expectations. Analysts are closely observing whether AWS can achieve growth closer to 23%, while the consensus estimate hovers around 21%.
What Tends to Move the Stock
The rapid growth of AWS generally boosts the stock, particularly if profit margins remain stable.
AWS growth that is merely "fine," paired with heavier spending, can disappoint.
Amazon's advertising business has become one of the most vital profit drivers, with attractive margins compared to traditional retail sales.
Amazon's own results show advertising services at $17.703 billion in Q3 2025.
For Q4, the market consensus is around $24.8 billion to $25.7 billion.
Why It Matters
Advertising strength can ease concerns about retail margin pressure.
A miss can raise questions about growth durability, especially if AWS is only in line.
Retail sales are significant, but what really matters is whether Amazon is protecting margins while maintaining high delivery speeds and service levels.
In Q3 2025:
North America segment sales were $106.3 billion
International segment sales were $40.9 billion
Operating income totaled $17.4 billion, though Amazon also disclosed special charges that affected the quarter
For Q4, investors will watch:
Fulfillment and shipping cost trends
Promotional intensity during the holiday season
Any signals on wage and logistics pressures
This is the area that can quickly change the tone of the call.
Amazon noted that its free cash flow fell to $14.8 billion over the past 12 months, primarily due to a substantial increase in property and equipment purchases.
If management indicates another rise in investments without a clear timeline for returns, the market may respond negatively, even if earnings per share (EPS) exceed expectations.
| Earnings outcome | What it usually means | Typical market reaction |
|---|---|---|
| Beat + upbeat guidance | Demand and margins holding up | Often positive, sometimes sharply |
| Beat + cautious guidance | Good quarter, but uncertainty ahead | Mixed, can fade quickly |
| Miss or weak guidance | Growth or costs worse than expected | Often negative, can gap down |
This is not a forecast. It is a typical pattern in how earnings get priced.
Guidance is not only about the numbers. It is also about confidence.
Here are the specific tone checks that often move AMZN stock:
Does management sound comfortable with demand in Q1?
Are they implying stable margins, or rising costs?
Do they frame spending as targeted or open-ended?
Do they give clear signposts on AWS capacity, AI infrastructure, and timing?
Options pricing suggests traders expect a nearly 7% move in either direction by the end of the week after the results.
| Reference price | Implied move | Downside range | Upside range |
|---|---|---|---|
| $232.99 | ±7% | ~$216.68 | ~$249.30 |
The current price of AMZN stock is approximately $232.99. A 7% change in this price would amount to about $16.31.
This is not a directional call. It is the market's estimate of magnitude, and it helps explain why guidance language can matter as much as headline EPS.
| Indicator | Level | What it implies |
|---|---|---|
| RSI(14) | 37.767 | Momentum is weak, but not yet at classic capitulation levels. |
| MACD(12,26) | -1.92 | Trend momentum is negative into earnings. |
| MA20 (simple) | 238.58 | A near-term ceiling if the stock rebounds on results. |
| MA50 (simple) | 240.22 | A bigger resistance zone that often decides whether a bounce becomes a trend. |
| MA200 (simple) | 237.60 | A long-run reference that is now above spot, which can weigh on sentiment. |
Technicals are leaning defensive into the print. The daily technical panel shows a Strong Sell signal, with RSI(14) at 37.767 and the stock trading below multiple key moving averages.
| Level type | Price |
|---|---|
| Support S1 | 233.05 |
| Support S2 | 231.31 |
| Support S3 | 230.44 |
| Pivot | 233.92 |
| Resistance R1 | 235.66 |
| Resistance R2 | 236.53 |
| Resistance R3 | 238.27 |
If results are clean and guidance is steady, traders will often watch whether AMZN can reclaim the pivot area near $233.92 and then challenge the $238 to $240 moving-average band.
Yes. Amazon will discuss its Q4 2025 results on February 5, 2026, during a call at 5:00 p.m. ET, following the market's closure.
Consensus expectations before the release indicate approximately $211.55 billion in revenue and about $1.97 in EPS.
AWS is the key swing variable because it drives the valuation narrative. Investors will focus on whether AWS's growth meets expectations and whether margins hold up as AI-related infrastructure spending rises.
Options pricing suggests a move of nearly 7% in either direction by the end of the week after the results. With AMZN near $232.99, that is roughly a $216.68 to $249.30 range.
In conclusion, Amazon's earnings today are less about whether the company had a strong holiday quarter and more about whether the next phase of growth is translating into durable profit.
AWS remains the central swing factor, because investors are grading both growth and margin under the weight of AI infrastructure spending.
If AWS momentum surpasses market expectations and management communicates capital expenditures in line with visible demand, AMZN could quickly regain its technical levels.
However, if spending guidance increases more rapidly than the monetization narrative, the market might view the report as a valuation reset, even if the headline numbers exceed expectations.
Disclaimer: This material is for general information purposes only and is not intended as (and should not be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by EBC or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.
