Published on: 2026-01-15
TSMC's Q4 2025 earnings conference call is scheduled for Thursday, January 15, 2026, today at 01:00 to 02:30 a.m. Eastern Time.
TSMC already revealed a key part of the story. Fourth-quarter revenue climbed 20.45% year over year to about NT$1.046 trillion (roughly $33.11 billion), beating market expectations and coming in within management's guidance range.
That sets a high bar for the full earnings report today. When revenue is already strong, the market shifts focus to profitability, guidance, and the "plumbing" that supports AI demand, such as advanced packaging capacity and leading-edge node utilisation.
| Item | Time | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Earnings conference (Taiwan time) | Thu, 15 Jan 2026, 14:00–15:30 | Taiwan time is the same as Kuala Lumpur time. |
| Earnings conference (US Eastern Time) | Thu, 15 Jan 2026, 01:00–02:30 a.m. ET | This is the headline time most global desks follow. |
| Quiet period | 5–14 Jan 2026 | TSMC stated it would refrain from investment community contact. |
TSMC's revenue for Q4 2025 reached NT$1.046 trillion, surpassing the LSEG SmartEstimate and reflecting the ongoing AI-driven demand.
TSMC's own monthly report for December also shows full-year momentum. TSMC said 2025 revenue totalled NT$3,809.05 billion, up 31.6% from 2024.
In Q3 2025, TSMC's official announcement indicated that the company was significantly focused on advanced nodes and high-performance computing.
TSMC reported that in Q3 2025:
3nm accounted for 23% of total wafer revenue, while 5nm accounted for 37% and 7nm accounted for 14%.
Advanced technologies (7nm and below) accounted for 74% of total wafer revenue.
High-performance computing accounted for 57% of net revenue, while smartphones accounted for 30%.
This matters because Q4 typically includes seasonal smartphone strength, but the AI-led HPC share has become the anchor.
| Metric | Latest public reference | Why it matters for price today |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 revenue | About NT$1.046 trillion (about $33.11 billion) | Revenue is already known, so it sets a base for margin math |
| Q4 net profit (market expectation) | Around NT$475.2b to NT$479.1b | A miss or beat shifts the "pricing power vs cost" debate |
| Q4 gross margin (company guide) | 59% to 61% | Margins decide how much AI demand drops to earnings |
| Q4 operating margin (company guide) | 49% to 51% | Operating leverage is the key confidence signal |
| 2026 growth backdrop (external expectation) | Revenue growth of 25% to 30% | Sets expectations for 2026 guidance tone |
LSEG SmartEstimate forecasts Q4 net profit in a range of roughly NT$475.2 billion to NT$479.1 billion, implying about 27% to 28% year-on-year growth.
From the company's Q4 guidance page (and reiterated in the Q3 transcript), TSMC guided:
Revenue: $32.2 billion to $33.4 billion
Gross margin: 59% to 61%
Operating margin: 49% to 51%
Exchange rate assumption: $1 to NT$30.6
TSMC's Q4 revenue strength was driven by full utilisation of 3-nanometre capacity, with demand supported by smartphone and AI-related chips.
Traders should watch for management signals indicating that utilisation remains tight in early 2026, as this affects both revenue visibility and pricing power.
The upcoming 2‑nanometre node is expected to support and accelerate growth in 2026.
Traders ought to consider any "on track" phrases as encouraging, but any indication of schedule risk should be viewed negatively, as the market expects a seamless ramp.
AI chips do not only require advanced wafers. They also need advanced packaging.
Even if wafer demand is strong, packaging constraints can cap shipments. Management commentary here often matters more than the headline revenue number.
The January 15 earnings call is also expected to include updated capex plans and a full-year outlook.
A higher capex number can be read in two ways. It can signal confidence in demand, but it can also signal higher depreciation pressure that can weigh on margins later.
A faster overseas ramp could dilute some of the margin gains expected from the next node and pricing.
TSMC's large US investment plan remains a market focus, with the company's $165 billion Arizona buildout.
| Scenario | What the numbers and guidance look like | Likely market reaction |
|---|---|---|
| Bull case | Profit beats estimates, margins land near the top of guidance, and 2026 growth outlook leans toward 25%–30%. | The stock can extend, and semiconductors may follow. |
| Base case | Profit meets estimates, margins sit around the midpoint, and guidance is confident but not aggressive. | The stock may chop, and attention shifts to packaging and capex details. |
| Bear case | Profit misses, margins disappoint, or management points to heavier overseas dilution or a softer near-term order trend. | The stock can pull back sharply because expectations are already high. |
The most important output from this earnings day is usually the forward view.
Traders should watch for:
Q1 2026 revenue guidance, because it reveals whether demand is still pulling forward after a strong 2025.
Full-year 2026 growth guidance, because the market is actively debating whether 25%–30% is the right expectation.
Pricing commentary, because tight leading-edge capacity can improve mix and margins even when unit volumes are stable
TSMC's Q4 2025 earnings conference is scheduled for January 15, 2026, at 14:00 Taiwan time, or 01:00 a.m. ET.
Analysts expect net profit around NT$475–NT$479 billion, which would be a record and roughly a 27%–28% YoY rise.
TSMC guided gross margin of 59%–61% and operating margin of 49%–51% for Q4 2025.
In conclusion, TSMC's Q4 2025 earnings are less about whether demand is strong and more about whether the company can maintain margin quality while expanding capacity and absorbing higher overseas costs.
The fastest way to read this report is to start with the margins and guidance. TSMC is expected to report a gross margin of around 59%–61% and an operating margin of 49%–51% for Q4, and the market will want to hear that overseas expansion costs are not overwhelming the benefits of tight leading-edge demand.
If management's 2026 outlook supports a 25%–30% growth narrative and confirms solid progress on 2nm, TSMC stock can stay in control.
Disclaimer: This material is for general information purposes only and is not intended as (and should not be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by EBC or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.
