Published on: 2026-03-05
Costco reports fiscal Q2 2026 results today, March 5, 2026, and the stock is priced for a meaningful move. COST last traded around $1,006.74, with a market value of nearly $398 billion, and has spent the past few weeks holding close to the $1,000 level.
The market's focus is also unusually tight because Costco earnings arrived with a fresh read on demand through its February sales release. Costco's monthly sales updates often significantly impact the stock, and today, investors have two opportunities to reassess momentum before the conference call starts.
Therefore, what will move COST stock post-earnings is not a small EPS beat by itself. COST will move on whether management confirms that comps are holding up, membership economics remain strong, and margins stay stable. The company is simultaneously investing in employee wages, digital fulfillment, and the construction of new warehouses.
Costco's investor calendar shows two key timestamps for March 5:
| Item | U.S. Pacific Time | U.S. Eastern Time |
|---|---|---|
| Earnings release + February sales | 1:15 PM PT | 4:15 PM ET |
| Earnings call webcast | 2:00 PM PT | 5:00 PM ET |
The times above come from Costco's official events page.
Street estimates cluster around $4.53 to $4.55 in EPS on roughly $69.3 billion of revenue for the quarter.
| Metric | Expected (Q2 FY2026) | Reported (Q2 FY2025) |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ~$69.29B | $63.72B |
| EPS | ~$4.53–$4.55 | $4.02 |
A straightforward way to frame the situation is to compare the current expectations with the same quarter last year.
In that quarter, Costco reported revenue of $63.72 billion and earnings per share (EPS) of $4.02. During that time, the company noted that higher costs and foreign exchange pressures contributed to its earnings performance.
Costco's most recent monthly report (January retail month) showed net sales of $21.33 billion, up 9.3% year over year, and total company comparable sales of 7.1% for the four weeks ended February 1, 2026.
Digitally enabled comparable sales were particularly robust, reaching 34.4% during the same four-week period.
If February's sales release shows a clear slowdown in comp sales or digital growth, COST can sell off even before management speaks. If February shows another steady comp print, it can reduce the downside risk around the call because it supports the "membership plus traffic" flywheel.
In the first quarter of the fiscal year, Costco reported membership fees of $1.329 billion, an increase from $1.166 billion in the same period last year.
Management also noted a slight decline in renewal rates, as members who signed up digitally tend to renew at lower rates than those who signed up in warehouses. They indicated that renewal rates may continue to decrease slightly in the upcoming quarters.
That combination makes Q2 membership commentary a stock-moving input, even if the core retail numbers look fine.
When a stock trades like a premium staple, investors often accept modest comp normalization, but they do not accept ambiguity around membership retention, margin structure, or cost creep.
This is why COST stock tends to react more to forward color than to the headline EPS number.
Costco's success depends entirely on the amount of foot traffic in its stores and the size of the shopping baskets. When comparable sales are strong, Costco can better leverage its costs, which tends to lift profit expectations.
The most recent hard data available to investors is the January sales update. Costco reported $21.33 billion in net sales for the four weeks ended February 1, 2026, up 9.3% year over year, and total company comparable sales were up 7.1% for those four weeks.
That release also indicated that comparable digital sales increased by 34.4% in the same four-week period, supporting the notion that Costco's online channel is becoming a more significant contributor to growth.
Costco's membership model is why investors treat the business as more stable than most retailers. Membership income is high-margin revenue that does not require Costco to sell more physical goods to grow profit.
In Costco's fiscal 2025 annual filing, the company reported:
Membership fee revenue increased 10% to $5.323 billion.
Renewal rates were 92.3% in the U.S. and Canada and 89.8% worldwide at the end of fiscal 2025.
Costco announced an increase in annual membership fees in the U.S. and Canada, effective September 1, 2024. The company stated that this increase in fees accounted for approximately 40% of membership income growth during fiscal year 2025.
Costco's customer service page officially notes the fee change, with Gold Star membership increasing from $60 to $65 and Executive membership rising from $120 to $130, effective September 1, 2024.
Costco operates with a deliberately low-margin retail model, meaning small changes in gross margin can significantly impact its EPS.
In its fiscal 2025 annual filing, Costco reported a gross margin percentage of 11.12%, an increase from 10.92% in 2024. The company also noted that variations in the gasoline mix can exert pressure on the gross margin percentage even when net sales increase.
Costco has also highlighted that gasoline often has a lower gross margin rate than the rest of the business, so a shift in gasoline penetration can change the margin picture even when the customer story is fine.
Costco often does not provide guidance in the same way a software company does, but management's tone still serves as guidance for the market.
Investors will focus on:
How management describes inflation, pricing, and the consumer.
How Costco plans to keep value leadership without sacrificing too much margin.
Any updates on warehouse growth plans, because new stores are a long-term driver of sales.
For context on scale, as of the January sales release, Costco reported operating 924 warehouses: 634 in the U.S. and Puerto Rico, 114 in Canada, and the remaining in other regions.
Options markets suggest a limited movement for high-beta earnings names, which aligns with Costco's typical profile.
OptionSlam lists:
Implied move (weekly): 3.43% (expires March 6, 2026)
Implied move (monthly): 5.10% (expires March 20, 2026)
Using COST around $1,006.74, a 3.43% implied move suggests a post-earnings range of roughly $972 to $1,041.
Before the numbers hit, it helps to know what the market has already priced in.
COST increased from $986.74 at the close on February 26 to $1,006.74 at the close on March 4, reflecting a gain of approximately 2.03%.
This movement indicates that the market has generally adopted a slightly optimistic outlook leading up to earnings, despite daily fluctuations remaining active around the $1,000 mark.
Over the past month, Costco's stock price increased from $978.35 on February 4 to $1,006.74 on March 4, resulting in a gain of approximately 2.90%.
This is not an explosive run, but it keeps the stock near the top end of its recent range, which can raise the bar for guidance.
In the past six months, Costco's overall price return has been approximately 4%.
In short, COST stock has not performed well during this period, despite remaining expensive on earnings multiples, underscoring the importance of tonight's tone.
Costco will publish Q2 earnings and February sales results at 1:15 p.m. PT and will host its earnings call at 2:00 p.m. PT.
Projected EPS are estimated between $4.53 and $4.55, with expected revenue of approximately $69.3 billion for fiscal Q2 2026.
Costco can report higher revenue but still decline if margins weaken, membership trends disappoint, or management expresses caution regarding costs, foreign exchange, or consumer demand.
OptionSlam shows an implied weekly move of about 3.43% into the March 6 expiry. With COST near $1,006, that points to roughly a $972 to $1,041 range, although a strong guidance tone can push the move beyond implied levels.
In conclusion, Costco's earnings today will be judged through demand momentum and membership durability.
February sales results will provide the first signal on comps and digital growth, while the earnings release and call will decide whether membership fee income, renewal rates, and margins are tracking in a way that supports Costco's premium valuation.
Disclaimer: This material is for general information purposes only and is not intended as (and should not be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by EBC or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.
