2025-09-19
Gold is now trading at record highs, with the spot price recently reaching around $3,700/oz in mid-September 2025. Entering the last quarter of 2025, the path of gold for the next five years (2025–2030) remains intriguing but unpredictable.
Will it reach new highs if inflation persists and central banks continue to cut rates? Or could it sink if real yields rise and investor appetite shifts elsewhere?
This article digs into the newest data, risk factors, forecasts from institutions, and long-term scenarios to help you assess gold's potential path forward.
Spot gold climbed to $3,707.40/oz, a record high, before settling slightly lower. [1]
As of September 19, 2025, spot gold was approximately $3,660.34/oz, with futures also rising.
YTD, gold has surged by approximately 35-40% on strong demand, expectations for rate cuts, and concerns over the U.S. dollar's strength.
These levels reset the baseline for forecasts: many analysts and institutions are now adjusting their expectations upward.
Additionally:
US CPI (August 2025): +0.4% MoM, +2.9% YoY.
Core CPI (ex-food & energy): +3.1% YoY.
Fed Funds Rate (post Sept 2025 cut): 4.00%–4.25%, after a 25 bps cut, the first since Dec 2024.
ECB Deposit Facility Rate: 3.25%, held steady.
Central Bank Gold Purchases 2025 (YTD, August): over 900 tonnes, led by China, India, Turkey, and Poland.
These metrics set the stage: inflation is cooling but sticky, central banks are cautiously cutting, and global reserves demand remains robust.
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 bps in September 2025, the first rate cut since December 2024.
Rate cut expectations and dovish guidance have increased; lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
Softer dollar in response to Fed easing expectations. This tends to make gold more appealing globally.
UBS predicts central bank purchases of 900-950 tons in 2025, nearly matching recent record levels.
Geopolitical tensions (trade wars, conflicts) and policy uncertainty are driving investor interest.
While inflation has eased from peaks, core inflation remains elevated, keeping real yields under pressure. This supports the case for gold as a hedge against inflation.
| Institution / Analyst | Forecast | Timeframe | Key Assumptions / Drivers |
|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | $3,800/oz by end-2025; $3,900/oz by mid-2026; gradual climb toward $4,200–$4,400 by 2028 | 2025–2028 | Fed rate cuts, weaker USD, steady central bank buying (900–950 tons/year) |
| ANZ Group | $3,800/oz by end-2025; approaching $4,000/oz by 2026; potential $4,300+ by 2028 if investment demand holds | 2025–2028 | Policy easing, global safe-haven demand, strong Asian consumption |
| Deutsche Bank | Average near $4,000/oz in 2026; sees gold trending between $4,200–$4,500/oz by 2027–2029 | 2026–2029 | Inflation stickiness, macro uncertainty, USD softness |
| World Gold Council (WGC) & IMF Data (trend analysis) | No fixed price targets but highlight steady demand from central banks and EM retail, suggesting gold could sustain $3,800–$4,500 range through late 2020s | 2025–2030 | Dedollarisation, safe-haven status, portfolio diversification |
Takeaway:
Short-term (2025–2026): The majority of analysts expect gold to stabilise between $3,800 and $4,000 per ounce. [2]
Medium-term (2027–2028): Forecast within the $4,200–$4,500/oz range if existing macro factors continue.
Long-term (2029–2030): In optimistic scenarios (persistent inflation, geopolitical tensions, central bank demand), forecasts could reach $5,000/oz or higher, although these predictions are considered speculative and conditional.
Not everything points upward. Some forces could counteract the rally:
Stronger real yields: If bond yields rise or inflation falls faster than anticipated, gold's appeal could diminish.
Delayed or fewer rate cuts: If inflation surprises push the Fed to keep rates higher, gold may face headwinds.
USD rebound: A stronger dollar (possibly due to global risk off or other central bank actions) can undercut gold.
Mining supply & cost pressures: Rising energy costs, supply chain disruptions, or increased mining capacity could weigh.
China & India continue to be major drivers of gold demand, both through jewellery and central bank holdings. However, retail demand in China has declined recently as investors favoured equities. [3]
Emerging markets with weakening currencies (e.g., Turkey, Latin America) are seeing increased local demand for gold as a store of value.
Reserve currency shifts remain gradual. Although certain countries are diversifying, the dollar still holds a dominant position in official reserves.
Gold hit a record spot high of roughly $3,707.40/oz in mid-September 2025 before a slight pullback.
Many institutions now expect gold to be around $3,800/oz by the end of 2025.
Rapid inflation cooling, stronger real yields, aggressive USD strength, or better returns in risk assets like equities.
Gold is benefiting from rate cuts and inflation. Other assets such as U.S. Treasuries, commodities, and currencies may also attract interest, especially in risk-off environments.
In conclusion, gold is not just hovering near new highs, it is rewriting forecasts. With spot prices above $3,600/oz, many analysts now expect it to approach $3,800/oz by end-2025 and possibly break into the $4,000+ range if certain tailwinds persist.
For investors, the most realistic path is moderate growth, with risk scenarios likely in both directions depending on inflation, interest rate policy, USD behaviuor, and global uncertainty.
Disclaimer: This material is for general information purposes only and is not intended as (and should not be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by EBC or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.
[1] https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-falls-after-scaling-record-peak-markets-digest-fed-chair-powells-comments-2025-09-17/
[2] https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/commodities/news/gold-could-rally-to-4000-as-upside-looks-stronger-than-correction-risk-deutsche-bank/articleshow/123973081.cms
[3] https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/china-gold-demand-falls-stock-market-rally-wgc-retail-investors-2025-9
