Published on: 2026-01-27
UNH reports full-year 2025 results today, Tuesday, January 27, 2026, before the market opens, and management will host a conference call at 8:00 a.m. ET.
The timing matters because UNH stock is not entering this report on a clean slate. The stock was repriced in after-hours trading due to a Medicare Advantage policy shock that affected the sector. Hours before UNH earnings today, UNH was trading near $321, down roughly 8.6% after hours.
That drop changes the tone for today's event. This is not only about whether UNH beats a quarterly estimate. It is about whether management can rebuild confidence in the forward earnings path while the policy backdrop is turning less supportive.
As mentioned earlier, UnitedHealth Group reports full-year 2025 results today (January 27, 2026), before the market opens, and management will provide financial guidance for 2026 during the call.
Earnings release: Before the market opens on January 27, 2026.
Earnings call: 8:00 a.m. ET on January 27, 2026.
In 2025, UNH worked to regain control of the narrative following a challenging period marked by a leadership change and increased scrutiny of its Medicare billing practices. For example, UNH suspended its outlook and then-CEO Andrew Witty left abruptly in May, with Stephen Hemsley returning as CEO.
Now add the fresh policy headline risk.
On January 26, 2026, reports indicated that the Trump administration's CMS proposal suggested a net average increase of 0.09% in Medicare Advantage payments for 2027, significantly lower than many investors had anticipated.
The sharp after-hours declines in major insurers followed that proposal.
So today's question becomes more specific:
Can management outline a credible 2026 recovery path that survives tougher Medicare Advantage math?
Can UNH show that medical costs are stabilizing, rather than re-accelerating?
Can Optum continue to act as a stabilizer, with margins that look durable even if reimbursement pressure rises?
The market reaction makes sense because Medicare Advantage economics are a confidence business. Valuations compress quickly when investors think reimbursement is tightening while utilization is rising.
Key points that drove the sector move:
The proposed 0.09% net average increase for 2027 is close to flat in headline terms.
Media reports also highlighted proposed changes to "unlinked chart reviews," which could reduce payments tied to certain risk coding practices. 1.53 percentage points are reducing the projected 2027 payment rate from the change before other adjustments.
The sector sold off sharply after the proposal, including a double-digit after-hours decline in UNH stock at one point.
This is why guidance and Medicare commentary on today's call can matter as much as the headline EPS number.
UNH's Q3 2025 print remains the market reference point because it provides the most transparent recent disclosure on utilization and scale.
Q3 2025 highlights:
Revenue: $113.2 billion, up 12% year over year.
Adjusted EPS: $2.92.
Medical care ratio: 89.9%.
UnitedHealthcare revenue: $87.1 billion; domestic consumers served: 50.1 million.
Optum revenue: $69.2 billion.
This combination tells you why guidance is so central today. Scale is not the problem. The question is whether margins can stabilize as policy and utilization variables shift.
| Item | What the market is looking for |
|---|---|
| Revenue | Around $113.8 billion |
| EPS | Around $2.10 |
| 2026 guidance | A credible reset path |
| Medicare Advantage commentary | Pricing discipline and utilization trend |
| Optum trajectory | Durable growth and margin mix |
Wall Street is expecting earnings per share of approximately $2.10 and revenue of about $113.8 billion for the quarter.
While these figures serve as a helpful baseline, the market is primarily focused on the future. UNH has demonstrated that utilization can quickly exceed expectations, so investors are likely to prioritize guidance and margin commentary over a narrow earnings-per-share surprise.
UNH explicitly stated it will provide 2026 financial guidance with today's release.
After a year when guidance credibility took a hit, investors will likely reward guidance that is:
Specifically, on how pricing offsets utilization.
Conservative enough to be believable.
Confident enough to signal the business is stabilizing.
If guidance is cautious or heavily conditional, the market may treat it as a signal that the reset is still in progress.
MCR is the simplest earnings quality signal for managed care. In Q3 2025, UNH reported an MCR of 89.9%.
Today, investors will listen to whether utilization is:
Normalizing in Medicare Advantage.
Persistently elevated in outpatient and specialty categories.
Becoming more predictable as pricing cycles catch up.
If management frames utilization as "stable and improving,: the market can re-rate quickly. If management implies utilization is still surprising to the upside, multiples can compress again.
The CMS proposal is now the stress test.
The proposed net average increase of 0.09% for 2027 is a headline that forces every insurer to explain how it defends margins.
The key is not whether UNH complains about the proposal. The key is whether UNH clearly explains how it can reprice and rebalance plan benefits, its risk adjustment strategy, and provider economics without losing competitiveness.
When insurance margins are unstable, the market turns to Optum for stabilization. That only works when investors believe Optum's margin profile is durable.
In Q3 2025, Optum revenue was $69.2 billion, up 8% YoY. On the call, investors will focus on:
Whether Optum Rx's growth is translating into operating leverage.
Whether care delivery margins are stable in a higher-cost environment.
Whether regulatory focus on PBMs is changing pricing assumptions.
Cash flow is often the quiet swing factor after a confidence shock. In Q3 2025, UNH reported $5.9 billion in cash flows from operations.
Investors will care about whether 2026 cash generation supports buybacks and dividend growth even if policy uncertainty stays high.
UNH's short-term tape going into earnings was improving, but the policy headline reversed the mood quickly in after-hours trading.
UNH closed the regular session on January 26, 2026, at around $351.64, and it traded near $321 after hours.
UNH's 7-day total return was about +3.90%, and the 30-day total return was about +6.90%, as of January 26.
UNH was approximately 49.9% above its 6-month low of $234.60, set on August 1, 2025. This highlights the significance of the rebound before the recent selloff.
Key Takeaway: When a stock is already moving 8% to 10% after hours on policy headlines, the earnings call becomes a second, separate catalyst. If guidance does not reduce uncertainty, volatility can stay elevated.
Earnings moves in managed care can be larger than investors expect, especially when policy headlines are involved.
Analysis showed that, over the last 12 earnings periods, options traders priced an average "over/under" earnings move of around 3.9%, while the actual average move was larger.
With UNH stock already down sharply after hours, today's realized move will likely be driven by whether guidance reduces uncertainty more than the policy tape increases it.
From a pure pricing perspective, UNH is now dealing with a gap-like repricing during extended hours.
Key reference points:
The 50-day SMA was around $332.60, and the 200-day SMA was around $335.19 as of January 26.
The 1-month low referenced on the same dataset was $326.26.
The 3-month low was $304.53, which becomes a natural downside reference if $320 fails to hold.
The 3-month and 6-month highs were both near $381.00, which is the first major resistance zone if sentiment flips back to recovery.
| Zone | Level area | Why traders watch it |
|---|---|---|
| Immediate support | Around $320 to $326 | It matches the after-hours print and the 1-month low region. |
| Deeper support | Around $304 | It is the 3-month low and a likely "risk-off" magnet if guidance disappoints. |
| First resistance | Around $333 to $335 | It clusters with the 50-day and 200-day SMAs. |
| Upper resistance | Around $358 to $381 | It matches recent highs where sellers previously showed up. |
Yes. UNH is scheduled to report before the market opens on Tuesday, January 27, 2026, and the conference call is scheduled for 8:00 a.m. ET
UNH fell sharply after hours following reports of a CMS proposal that implied a net average Medicare Advantage payment increase of only 0.09% for 2027, which raised concerns about sector margins and pricing power.
Investors will closely monitor 2026 guidance, trends in medical costs through utilization, and Optum's performance and quality. The headline EPS estimate is around $2.09, but forward commentary will likely drive the bigger move.
The biggest swing factor is whether management can credibly explain how pricing and cost actions can stabilize margins under the evolving Medicare Advantage policy framework. If that bridge is clear, the stock can recover even after a weak after-hours tape.
In conclusion, UNH is reporting into a market that has already delivered its first verdict, and it was negative. A roughly 8.6% after-hours drop tied to Medicare Advantage rate concerns means today's earnings are no longer a simple beat-or-miss event.
Investors will focus on the credibility of 2026 guidance, the direction of medical cost trends, and whether Optum can continue offsetting insurance volatility.
If management can connect the dots between utilization, pricing, and the new policy framework, the stock can stabilize quickly. If the message is defensive or unclear, volatility can remain elevated, and the market may start testing lower support levels.
Disclaimer: This material is for general information purposes only and is not intended as (and should not be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by EBC or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.
