Published on: 2026-06-25
Verdict: EUR/JPY is losing upward momentum near 184.00. The pair remains structurally elevated, but the short-term setup has shifted from “buy dips” to “prove it above 184.60 and 185.30 first.”
EUR/JPY is trading around 183.86 to 183.87 on 25 June 2026, down about 0.5% over the past week and 0.8% over the past month. The pair is below its June high near 186.31 and below its April 2026 high zone around 187.53 to 187.72, showing that traders have stopped extending the euro-yen carry trade aggressively for now.
The key near-term problem is the failure to hold the 184.60 to 185.30 zone. ECB reference data show EUR/JPY at 184.60on 8 June, 185.35 on 9 June, 185.30 on 12 June, and 185.33 on 22 June, before the pair slipped back into the 183 handle.
A move back above 184.60 would ease downside pressure. A daily close above 185.30 is the cleaner signal that buyers are regaining control.
| Indicator / Level | Latest Reading | Signal | Technical Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spot price | 183.87 | Neutral | Below 184.60, so recovery remains unconfirmed |
| RSI 14 | 56.71 | Mild bullish | Momentum is positive but not strong enough to confirm breakout |
| MACD 12,26 | 0.020 | Mild bullish | Positive but weak, showing limited upside force |
| EMA 20 | 183.76 | Supportive | Price is slightly above short-term trend support |
| EMA 50 | 183.89 | Neutral / resistance | Price is almost flat against the 50-EMA |
| EMA 100 | 184.25 | Resistance | Medium-term dynamic resistance remains overhead |
| EMA 200 | 184.62 | Key resistance | Aligns with the 184.60 recovery level |
| Immediate support | 183.50 to 183.70 | Support | Current intraday demand zone |
| Key support | 183.20 to 183.35 | Bearish trigger | Break would expose 182.00 |
| Deeper support | 182.00, then 181.25 | Downside zone | 181.25 marks the 2026 low |
| First resistance | 184.60 | Recovery trigger | Reclaiming this level stabilizes the chart |
| Confirmation resistance | 185.30 to 185.35 | Bullish confirmation | Daily close above this zone restores upside pressure |
| Major resistance | 187.50 to 187.70 | High zone | April 2026 resistance area |
The indicator mix is balanced, but no longer cleanly bullish. RSI remains above 50 and MACD is marginally positive, yet EUR/JPY is still below the EMA 100 and EMA 200. That makes 184.60 the first technical line. Until it is reclaimed, rallies look corrective rather than impulsive.
The first support sits at 183.50 to 183.70. A deeper break below 183.20 to 183.35 would confirm that sellers are forcing a rotation toward 182.00. Below that, 181.25 is the wider 2026 support reference.
Resistance starts at 184.60, where the EMA 200 and the early-June shelf converge. Above that, 185.30 to 185.35 is the confirmation zone. A daily close through that band would reopen 186.30, then the April high zone near 187.50 to 187.70.
For now, the working range is 183.20 to 184.60. A break on either side sets the next tactical direction.
The ECB still gives the euro a rate advantage. In June, it raised the deposit facility rate to 2.25%, the main refinancing rate to 2.40%, and the marginal lending facility to 2.65%, effective from 17 June. It also stressed that inflation risks are tilted to the upside, growth risks to the downside, and that policy is not pre-committed to a particular rate path.
The yen side is less passive. The Bank of Japan set its money-market operations guideline to keep the uncollateralized overnight call rate around 1.0%, effective from 17 June, with the decision passed by a 7-1 majority. It also set the complementary deposit facility rate at 1.0% and the basic loan rate at 1.25%.
BoJ board member Naoki Tamura added to that risk by arguing for steady or faster rate hikes if inflation risks intensify, with scope to move policy closer to a neutral level near 2%. That does not erase the euro’s carry advantage, but it reduces the comfort of holding yen shorts at stretched levels.
Intervention risk is not a direct EUR/JPY driver, but it matters for yen crosses. Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara has reaffirmed readiness to act against excessive yen weakness, with USD/JPY near historically weak levels. If yen short-covering accelerates, EUR/JPY would likely feel the spillover.
Intraday / short-term: mildly bearish below 184.60.
Swing view: neutral unless price breaks 185.30 upward or 183.20 downward.
Bullish confirmation: daily close above 185.30, targeting 186.30, then 187.50.
Bearish confirmation: break below 183.20, targeting 182.00, then 181.25.
For traders using EUR/JPY as a short-term setup, the clean trigger is still price confirmation rather than anticipation. A daily close above 185.30 would reopen 186.30 and the 187.50 high zone, while failure below 183.20 would shift focus toward 182.00 and 181.25. EUR/JPY is available through EBC’s forex instruments page, but position size and stop placement should be defined before entry.
The clean read: do not chase EUR/JPY long below 184.60. The cross is still structurally high, but buyers need to prove strength above 184.60 first. Below that level, sellers have the cleaner short-term setup, especially if BoJ or intervention headlines strengthen the yen.
