Published on: 2025-12-16
The next Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting will be the final meeting of 2025, scheduled for Thursday–Friday, December 18–19, 2025; the exact time has not yet been announced.
This particular meeting is exceptionally "live" because markets are widely positioned for a rate hike to around 0.75%, which would take Japan's policy rate to its highest level in about 30 years.
For anyone trading USD/JPY, Nikkei 225, or JGB yields, the calendar is the edge. If you know the dates, you can plan risk properly, avoid getting trapped in thin liquidity, and recognise when the market is front-running a policy shift rather than reacting to one.
According to the Bank of Japan's official Monetary Policy Meeting schedule, the next meeting is also the final meeting of 2025:
Meeting dates: Thursday 18 December – Friday 19 December 2025
Decision day: Friday, 19 December (the second day of the two-day meeting)
The BoJ does not announce a fixed release time for its policy statement; on its published schedule, the "Statement on Monetary Policy" is listed as "undecided" on the day.
In practice, the decision typically lands late morning to early afternoon in Japan, but you should treat the official position as: time can vary. The key is to plan for a headline at any point after the second-day session begins.
Going into this meeting:
Markets are bracing for a BoJ hike to 0.75%.
USD/JPY has been trading in the mid-150s, peaking around 154.735 on the 16th.
Japan's 10-year government bond yield is around 1.96%, near multi-year highs.
The Nikkei 225 dropped sharply on 16 December, closing near 49,383.
It is the kind of setup where a BoJ decision can trigger a sharp, two-step move: an initial reaction to the rate call, followed by a second swing as markets digest the guidance tone and the yen's response.
The BoJ holds eight Monetary Policy Meetings (MPMs) each year, and they typically run for two days.
| Meeting (2026) | BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting dates | Outlook Report "The Bank's View"? |
|---|---|---|
| January | Jan 22 (Thu) - Jan 23 (Fri) | Yes |
| March | Mar 18 (Wed) - Mar 19 (Thu) | No |
| April | Apr 27 (Mon) - Apr 28 (Tue) | Yes |
| June | Jun 15 (Mon) - Jun 16 (Tue) | No |
| July | Jul 30 (Thu) - Jul 31 (Fri) | Yes |
| September | Sep 17 (Thu) - Sep 18 (Fri) | No |
| October | Oct 29 (Thu) - Oct 30 (Fri) | Yes |
| December | Dec 17 (Thu) - Dec 18 (Fri) | No |
All dates above are from the BoJ's published schedule.
The same BoJ schedule includes the planned release dates for:
Outlook Report (for the four meetings above)
Summary of Opinions
Minutes
If you trade Japan regularly, the Summary of Opinions often matters almost as much as the decision, because it clarifies whether the Board is drifting towards another hike or cleaning up.
Economists overwhelmingly expect the BoJ to raise its short-term policy rate from 0.50% to 0.75% at the December 18–19 meeting, with roughly 90% forecasting a hike.
This expectation matters because the BoJ's last published guideline before the meeting was still to keep the uncollateralised overnight call rate around 0.5%.
Markets will treat the December meeting as a "path meeting," not just a single decision.
Rates could reach 1.0% by September 2026, in the median expectation.
The BoJ is likely to emphasise that policy would remain accommodative even after a hike, while keeping the door open to further increases.
Japan's inflation has remained above the BoJ's 2% target for an extended period, and the latest data still show core inflation running at roughly 3%.
The BoJ has repeatedly pointed to wage dynamics as a key condition for sustained normalisation, which is why every meeting in early 2026 will also be framed against spring wage negotiations.
Japan's long end has been under pressure, driven by fiscal concerns and the tightening cycle. The 10-year yield has pushed to an 18-year high, and super-long yields have been sensitive to budget and debt issuance expectations.
As of 16 December 2025, third-party market data shows:
Japan 10-year yield: about 1.96%
Japan 20-year yield: about 2.92%
Confirm the exact two-day window: 18–19 December 2025.
Reduce position size if your stop depends on tight liquidity during Tokyo hours.
Mark the nearest USD/JPY liquidity zones (154–156 has been the active band).
Anticipate a whipsaw reaction if the outcome aligns with expectations, yet the guidance is unexpected.
Watch USD/JPY first, then JGB yields, then Japanese equities. That is usually the clean sequence.
Read the Summary of Opinions when it lands, because it can change the market's assumptions about the next hike even when the decision is "as expected".
The next BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting is the final one of 2025, scheduled for 18–19 December 2025.
A strong consensus for a hike to 0.75% at the Dec 18–19 meeting, with attention shifting to whether the BoJ signals further hikes in 2026.
The first BoJ meeting of 2026 is 22–23 January 2026.
The BoJ holds eight Monetary Policy Meetings per year, generally in January, March, April, June, July, September, October, and December.
In conclusion, the next BoJ meeting on December 18–19, 2025, will conclude a year where Japan's tightening story ultimately came true.
However, the more important point for readers is that the BoJ calendar is now a live trading calendar, because the policy path in 2026 will be shaped meeting by meeting.
Disclaimer: This material is for general information purposes only and is not intended as (and should not be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by EBC or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.
