Published on: 2025-12-15
The next US inflation print is not coming on a routine Wednesday or after a clean run of data. It is landing after a government shutdown, with one month of CPI missing, at a time when the Federal Reserve has already cut rates three times this year, and the dollar is trading near its weakest level in months.
According to the official schedule from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November 2025 will be released on Thursday, December 18, 2025, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time.
If you trade indices, FX, bonds or gold, you need this date, this time, and this context at your fingertips.
For this specific print:
Reference month: November 2025
Report name: Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), November 2025
Release date: Thursday, December 18, 2025
Release time: 08:30 a.m. Eastern Time (13:30 UTC)
Publisher: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
| City / Region | Local time when CPI is released on 18 Dec 2025 | Time zone |
|---|---|---|
| New York | 08:30, Thursday | Eastern Time (UTC-5) |
| London | 13:30, Thursday | GMT (UTC+0) |
| Frankfurt | 14:30, Thursday | CET (UTC+1) |
| Tokyo | 22:30, Thursday | JST (UTC+9) |
| Sydney | 00:30, Friday (19 Dec) | AEDT (UTC+11) |
If you are in Asia or Oceania, this CPI report effectively becomes an evening or overnight event, which has implications for liquidity and intraday risk management.
For most of the last decade, CPI has followed a predictable pattern: one release every month, usually in the second week, with clean month-to-month comparisons. That pattern broke in autumn 2025.
Because of the 43-day federal government shutdown, the BLS could not collect CPI data for the October 2025 reference period. The agency has been very clear about the consequences:
The BLS will not publish the October 2025 CPI report.
It cannot retroactively collect the missing price data because the survey requires contemporaneous observations.
The BLS has also explained that:
For a limited set of indexes where it uses non-survey data sources, it can still calculate November changes, but
It will not publish month-over-month percentage changes for November 2025 in categories that rely on October survey data, because the October base is missing.
It means the December 18 release will look different from a typical CPI report. Year-over-year rates will be fully available, but some month-over-month detail will be missing or heavily caveated.
The revised BLS schedule for December confirms that:
December 16: Employment Situation for November (delayed nonfarm payrolls).
December 18: Consumer Price Index for November, and Real Earnings.
December 19: Consumer Expenditures (annual) and other secondary series.
That clustering of jobs and inflation data in the same week is why you are seeing so much focus on the mid-December window.
Market consensus anticipates the headline CPI for November 2025 to be between 2.9% and 3.1% YoY.
Recent history looks like this:
July 2025 (YoY): 2.7%
August 2025 (YoY): 2.9%
September 2025 (YoY): 3.0%
In other words, inflation has been drifting higher again, away from the mid-2s and back towards 3%.
On 9–10 December 2025, the Federal Reserve:
Delivered its third consecutive 25 basis point rate cut, taking the federal funds target range to 3.50–3.75%.
Signalled that it expects only one more 25 basis point cut in 2026 and one in 2027, keeping rates above 3% for several years.
Acknowledged that inflation "remains somewhat elevated", even after falling from its early-year highs.
The November CPI print on December 18 thus serves as a direct test of the Fed's decision to slow the easing cycle. If the headline or core CPI surprises to the upside, markets will start asking whether the Fed's "one cut in 2026" path is still too generous.
If inflation slips back towards the mid-2s, traders will entertain the possibility that the Fed can afford a bit more easing than its current dot plot suggests.
This is the "no drama" case.
Equities would probably stabilise or grind higher, especially in sectors that like lower real yields.
The dollar would likely drift lower or remain soft, supporting EUR/USD and risk-sensitive currencies.
Gold would keep its uptrend, perhaps without an explosive move.
DXY could bounce from the 98 area back toward the high-98s or even 99.
10-year yields could push higher from roughly 4.18%, especially if shelter or services re-heat.
S&P 500 futures would likely wobble, with the index already near record territory.
Dollar bears would probably press for a break below DXY 98.
Yields could rotate down toward the 4.0% zone.
Gold, which has just broken above $4,300, could be given another leg up toward its October high near $4,380.
The next US CPI report will be released on Thursday, December 18, 2025, at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Data collection for October 2025 was disrupted by a multi-week federal government shutdown, which forced the BLS to cancel the October CPI release entirely.
Most forecasts sit around 2.9–3.1% year-on-year for both headline and core CPI.
In conclusion, the next US CPI report, covering November data, is on Thursday, December 18, 2025, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time.
Its importance stems from the surrounding context: missing October data, a fresh Fed rate cut, still-elevated inflation near 3%, and markets priced for gentle disinflation rather than a rude surprise.
Disclaimer: This material is for general information purposes only and is not intended as (and should not be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by EBC or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.
