Published on: 2025-09-19 Updated on: 2025-10-16
Gold is now trading at fresh all-time highs, recently surpassing $4,200 per ounce in mid-October 2025. As the year heads into its final quarter, the path of gold for the next five years (2025–2030) remains both exciting and uncertain.
With inflation cooling but still sticky, central banks cutting rates, and geopolitical risks escalating, investors are asking: Will gold continue to soar toward $5,000, or is it due for a pullback?
This article digs into the newest data, risk factors, forecasts from institutions, and long-term scenarios to help you assess gold's potential path forward.
Spot gold recently set a new record high above $4,200 per ounce in mid-October 2025 amid U.S.–China trade jitters and rate cut bets and has maintained strength around the $4,200 to $4,230 range. [1]
As of mid-October, gold is up roughly 42% YTD, supported by heavy ETF inflows, robust central-bank demand, and expectations for multiple Fed rate cuts in 2026.
Recent ETF inflows reached unprecedented amounts, with over $5.6 billion entering gold within just one week, according to BofA data, indicating robust demand. [2]
These levels reset the baseline for forecasts: many analysts and institutions are now adjusting their expectations upward.
Additionally:
| Metric | Latest (October 2025) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| US CPI (September 2025) | +0.3% MoM, +2.7% YoY | Inflation cooling, but above Fed’s target |
| Core CPI (ex-food & energy) | +2.9% YoY | Still sticky |
| Fed Funds Rate (post-Sept cut) | 4.00–4.25% | First cut since Dec 2024 |
| ECB Deposit Facility Rate | 3.25% | Held steady |
| Central-Bank Gold Purchases (YTD Sept) | ~950 tonnes | Led by China, India, Turkey, Poland (WGC 2025 Q2) |
These metrics set the stage: inflation is cooling but sticky, central banks are cautiously cutting, and global reserves demand remains robust.
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 bps in September 2025, the first rate cut since December 2024.
Rate cut expectations and dovish guidance have increased; lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
Markets now price in two additional cuts in 2026, keeping real yields low.
It is a key near-term upside catalyst, driving safe-haven demand that helped push gold past $4,200. [3]
The DXY index fell below 100 in October, its weakest in 18 months, reinforcing gold's global bid.
Central-bank purchases now exceed 950 tonnes YTD, on pace to match 2022's record.
Reserve diversification (notably by China & Turkey) underpins structural demand.
Core inflation remains above 2.5%; real yields are negative.
Escalating U.S.–China trade tensions and Middle East uncertainty sustain the safe-haven premium.
| Institution / Analyst | Forecast | Timeframe | Key Drivers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bank of America [4] | $4,400–$5,000/oz | 2025–2026 | Lower real yields, rate cuts, ETF inflows |
| UBS | $4,000 end-2025, $4,400 by 2028 | 2025–2028 | Fed easing, central-bank buying (900–950 t/y) |
| ANZ Group | $3,900–$4,200/oz by 2026, $4,300+ by 2028 | 2025–2028 | Policy easing, Asia demand |
| Deutsche Bank | Avg $4,200 in 2026, $4,500–$4,800 by 2029 | 2026–2029 | Sticky inflation, USD softness |
| World Gold Council / IMF Trends | Sustained $4,000–$4,800 range through 2030 | 2025–2030 | De-dollarisation, safe-haven reserve use |
Takeaway:
Short-term (2025–2026): Analysts currently anticipate gold stabilising within the range of $4,000 to $4,400 per ounce.
Medium-term (2027–2028): Forecasts cluster around $4,400–$4,800, assuming continued monetary easing and strong demand.
Long-term (2029–2030): Bullish scenarios reach $5,000+, contingent on persistent inflation, rate cuts, and geopolitical volatility.
Despite record highs, risks remain:
Higher real yields: If growth surprises upward, the Fed could slow or reverse rate-cut plans.
Stronger USD: A sudden dollar rebound could pressure commodities broadly.
Supply response: Higher prices may trigger new mining investment, raising output by 2027+.
ETF outflows: If equity markets rebound sharply, capital could rotate out of gold ETFs.
China & India remain dominant, accounting for nearly 55% of global jewellery and retail bar demand. However, retail demand in China has declined recently as investors favoured equities. [5]
Chinese central-bank purchases continued for 11 consecutive months, while retail buying eased as domestic equities rallied.
Emerging markets such as Turkey, Egypt, and Latin America saw record local-currency highs for gold, boosting household hedging demand.
The U.S. dollar still makes up ~58% of global reserves, but steady dedollarisation keeps gold strategically relevant.
In mid-October 2025, gold set a new all-time high surpassing $4,230 per ounce, marking one of the highest peaks in history. After reaching this level, gold prices have remained strong, generally trading above $4,200 per ounce.
Most institutions now target $4,000–$4,400 per ounce by December 2025.
Rapid inflation cooling, stronger real yields, aggressive USD strength, or better returns in risk assets like equities.
Gold remains outperforming relative to Treasuries and the JPY, but CHF and U.S. bonds may regain appeal if risk appetite normalises.
In conclusion, gold isn't just holding its ground; it's rewriting market records. With spot prices exceeding $4,100/oz, many analysts expect continued strength through 2026 as easing cycles, geopolitical risks, and central bank accumulation align.
Realistically, the upcoming five years might witness gold stabilising within the range of $4,000 to $4,800, with the possibility of exceeding $5,000 if inflation and the trend of rate cuts continue. Yet, as always, reversals can come swiftly if the Fed or USD trajectory changes.
Disclaimer: This material is for general information purposes only and is not intended as (and should not be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by EBC or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.
[2] https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/sep/28/bullion-bonanza-why-is-gold-hitting-record-highs
[4] https://www.reuters.com/business/bofa-lifts-2026-gold-forecast-5000oz-sees-silver-65-2025-10-13/
