Published on: 2026-08-27
Updated on: 2026-08-27
Casey’s General Stores sells fuel, pizza, groceries and convenience products across mostly smaller U.S. communities. Yet this seemingly ordinary business generated a roughly 585% total return over the decade through August 24, 2026.
The explanation is less dramatic than the result. Casey’s spent years expanding its store base, increasing sales per location, shifting more spending toward higher-margin food and integrating acquisitions. More recently, investors also began assigning a much higher valuation to those earnings.
Casey’s delivered a roughly 585% 10-year total return through August 24, 2026, compared with about 311% for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF over the same period.
From FY2016 to FY2026, Casey’s expanded from 1,931 to 2,944 stores, while diluted EPS climbed from $5.73 to $19.16.
Prepared food and dispensed beverages produced a 58.6% revenue-less-cost-of-goods-sold margin in FY2026, helping Casey’s convert fuel-driven traffic into more profitable inside-store sales.
The latest phase of the rally also involved substantial multiple expansion. At $823.15 on August 26, CASY traded at roughly 43 times FY2026 diluted EPS.
Casey’s long-term performance cannot be explained by one strong year.
Through August 24, 2026, the stock had generated approximately 335% in total returns over five years and 585% over ten years. Over the same ten-year period, SPY returned about 311% with dividends reinvested.
| Period | CASY Total Return | SPY Total Return |
|---|---|---|
| 3 years | 258% | 81% |
| 5 years | 335% | 82% |
| 10 years | 585% | 311% |
Returns through August 24, 2026. Figures include reinvested dividends.
The acceleration has been particularly sharp recently. CASY’s share price was up about 49% for 2026 through August 26 and approximately 66% over the preceding year.
But the recent rally sits on top of a much longer earnings story. On August 26, 2016, Casey’s shares closed at $133.11. By August 26, 2026, they were around $823.15.
That represents roughly 518% in price appreciation. With reinvested dividends included, total return over roughly the same decade reached about 585%.
The distinction matters because the share-price return can be compared directly with the growth in earnings and the valuation multiple investors were willing to pay for those earnings.
Casey’s had 1,931 stores at the end of FY2016. By FY2021, the network had reached 2,243 locations. By April 2026, the total stood at 2,944 stores across 19 states.
The financial progression was even stronger.
| Fiscal Year | Stores | Revenue | Net Income | Diluted EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2016 | 1,931 | $7.12B | $226M | $5.73 |
| FY2021 | 2,243 | $8.71B | $313M | $8.38 |
| FY2026 | 2,944 | $17.56B | $714M | $19.16 |
Between FY2016 and FY2026, store count rose approximately 52%. Revenue increased around 147%, net income more than tripled and diluted EPS climbed roughly 234%.
That translates into an EPS compound annual growth rate of nearly 13% over the decade.
The core formula was simple:
More stores + higher sales per store + better product mix + operating leverage.
The per-store data helps show that this was not only a story of opening and acquiring more locations. Between FY2024 and FY2026, average inside sales per mature store increased from about $2.04 million to $2.20 million, while average inside revenue less cost of goods sold rose from roughly $801,000 to $896,000. Average operating income per store climbed from about $473,000 to $566,000.
In other words, the network became larger while individual established stores also became more productive.
FY2026 shows how those pieces can work together. Inside same-store sales increased 4.2%, while net income rose 30.7% to $714.4 million and diluted EPS increased 30.9% to $19.16. EBITDA reached nearly $1.48 billion, up 23.6%.
Casey’s did not need explosive growth at individual locations. Modest improvements repeated across thousands of stores were enough to create much larger gains at the corporate level.
Fuel may bring customers onto Casey’s properties, but much of the economic value is created after they walk inside.
Prepared food and dispensed beverages generated approximately $1.78 billion of revenue in FY2026. Revenue less related cost of goods sold represented 58.6% of sales in the category. Grocery and general merchandise generated approximately $4.56 billion of revenue at a comparable margin measure of 35.8%.
Across the last three fiscal years, prepared food, beverages, groceries and general merchandise accounted for roughly 36% of total company revenue but approximately 63% of revenue less cost of goods sold.
That is why Casey’s should not be analysed solely as a fuel retailer.
Casey’s does not need fuel itself to produce the highest margin. Fuel helps generate traffic; the economics improve when those visits convert into pizza, beverages, groceries and merchandise inside the store.
Prepared-food same-store sales increased 5.2% in FY2026, helped by hot sandwiches, bakery products and whole pizzas. Revenue rose 10.2%, with roughly five percentage points of that growth coming from store expansion.
The resulting flywheel is relatively simple: fuel generates visits, inside categories monetize those visits, prepared food raises profit per customer, and a larger store network spreads that model across more locations.
Casey’s Rewards, now approaching 10.5 million members, also gives the company a growing channel for directing customers toward food and merchandise offers.
Organic growth explains only part of Casey’s expansion.
The company has repeatedly used acquisitions alongside new-store construction to enlarge its footprint, then applied its merchandising, prepared-food and operating systems to those locations.
The largest recent example was the acquisition of Fikes Wholesale, owner of CEFCO Convenience Stores. The deal added 198 retail locations and closed in November 2024 for approximately $1.17 billion.
FY2026 also shows why Casey’s growth should not be confused with purely organic compounding. Of the roughly $1.62 billion increase in annual revenue, about $1.03 billion, or roughly 64%, came from the incremental Fikes contribution. Inside same-store sales, by comparison, rose a more modest 4.2%.
That means Casey’s long-term model compounds through two different channels.
Same-store growth improves the economics of locations Casey’s already owns.
Store-count growth deploys capital into additional locations where the same operating model can be applied.
Casey’s completed its FY2024-FY2026 strategic period with 504 additional stores, exceeding its previous target of roughly 500. Management is now targeting at least another 400 stores between FY2027 and FY2029 through acquisitions and new construction.
That expansion is also central to capital allocation. Casey’s prioritizes growth projects that can add stores and improve returns on invested capital, while also maintaining balance-sheet capacity, paying dividends and repurchasing shares. In June 2026, the board expanded its share-repurchase authorization to $1 billion and raised the quarterly dividend by 14%, marking its 27th consecutive annual increase.
The compounding therefore comes from both the operating performance of existing stores and management’s decisions about where incremental cash is redeployed.
Not every part of FY2026 earnings growth should be treated as permanently repeatable.
Fuel profitability was particularly favorable.
Casey’s fuel revenue less cost of goods sold reached 42.6 cents per gallon in FY2026, up from 38.7 cents a year earlier. Fuel gross profit rose 21%.
Management also noted that fuel margins during the year, particularly in the fourth quarter, were historically higher than average for both Casey’s and the wider retail-fuel industry.
That makes fuel a useful dividing line between Casey’s structural growth and more cyclical support.
Store expansion, prepared-food penetration, same-store sales and operating efficiencies are longer-duration drivers. Elevated fuel margins added an additional boost that may prove less persistent.
For FY2027, management expects same-store fuel gallons to range from a 1% decline to a 1% increase while still forecasting 8% to 10% EBITDA growth. That suggests the next stage of earnings growth does not depend entirely on another year of unusually strong fuel economics.
The business explains much of Casey’s historical share-price gain, but not all of it.
| Driver | 2016 | 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Diluted EPS | $5.73 | $19.16 | 3.34× |
| P/E on FY earnings | ~23× | ~43× | ~1.85× |
| Share price | $133.11 | $823.15 | 6.18× |
FY2016 diluted EPS was $5.73. At the August 26, 2016 share price of $133.11, CASY traded at roughly 23 times earnings.
FY2026 diluted EPS reached $19.16. With shares at $823.15 on August 26, 2026, the stock traded at roughly 43 times trailing earnings.
The 6.18× increase in Casey’s share price can therefore be understood as roughly 3.34× growth in earnings per share amplified by a near-doubling of the valuation investors attached to those earnings.
Put differently, EPS rose about 234%, while the share price increased about 518%. Reinvested dividends then lifted the decade’s total shareholder return to roughly 585%.
Business compounding built the earnings base. Multiple expansion magnified the stock return.
Several factors likely contributed to that rerating, including consistent earnings growth, larger scale, acquisition execution, stronger prepared-food economics and rising institutional visibility.
Casey’s entry into the S&P 500 on April 9, 2026 was another milestone. By the time the inclusion was announced, however, CASY had already gained roughly 35% in 2026 and around 80% over the preceding 12 months.
The index addition therefore did not create the multibagger. It reflected what Casey’s had already become.
The more difficult question now is valuation.
Historical shareholders benefited from both rising earnings and a higher earnings multiple. If the P/E ratio stops expanding or contracts, future share-price gains will depend much more heavily on the pace of earnings growth.
At roughly 43 times FY2026 earnings, Casey’s now has less room for disappointment than it did a decade ago.
Casey’s became a multibagger through repeated execution rather than one transformational event.
Over ten years, its store base expanded, mature stores became more productive, prepared food improved the economics of customer visits and acquisitions widened the footprint. Net income rose from $226 million in FY2016 to more than $714 million in FY2026.
Management is now targeting another 8% to 10% EBITDA compound annual growth rate through FY2029, at least 400 additional stores and approximately $2 billion of free cash flow.
The next phase is more demanding because the valuation has already rerated substantially.
Casey’s shows how an ordinary-looking business can produce extraordinary long-term returns when several modest growth engines compound together for long enough. But the historical multibagger came from two forces working at once: earnings growth and multiple expansion.
Earnings can continue compounding if the business keeps executing. Repeatedly paying more for each dollar of those earnings is much harder to assume from a starting valuation near 43 times profit.
