Published on: 2025-12-12
Updated on: 2025-12-16
The next United States non-farm payrolls report is not following the usual "first Friday" pattern.
Because of the autumn government shutdown and data delays, the next US Non Farm Payrolls report will be released on Tuesday, 16 December 2025, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, when the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) publishes the Employment Situation for November 2025, including payroll figures for both October and November.
If you are planning trades beyond that date, the following Employment Situation release, covering December 2025, is scheduled for Friday, 9 January 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, which is back on a more typical Friday slot in the BLS 2026 calendar.
| Reference month (data) | Report name | Scheduled release date | Release time (ET) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October and November 2025 | Employment Situation: November 2025 | Tuesday, 16 December 2025 | 08:30 | Includes October and November non-farm payrolls due to shutdown-related delay. |
| December 2025 | Employment Situation: December 2025 | Friday, 9 January 2026 | 08:30 | Returns to the more usual Friday release pattern. |
According to the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) release calendar, the next Employment Situation report, which contains the headline non-farm payrolls (NFP) number, is scheduled for:
Date: Tuesday, 16 December 2025
Time: 08:30 a.m. Eastern Time (ET)
Period covered: November 2025
The BLS confirms this timing at the foot of its latest Employment Situation release, stating that "The Employment Situation for November is scheduled to be released on Tuesday, 16 December 2025, at 8:30 a.m. (ET)."
Converted into a few key trading time zones, that becomes:
New York: 8:30 a.m. (ET)
London: 1:30 p.m. (GMT)
Frankfurt: 2:30 p.m. (CET)
Singapore / Hong Kong: 9:30 p.m. (UTC+8)
So for Asian traders, this is a late-evening macro event, while for US desks it hits right at the start of the cash equity session.
Once the delayed November release is out, the calendar reverts to a more normal pattern:
Release name: Employment Situation (December 2025)
Release date: Friday, 9 January 2026
Release time: 08:30 a.m. Eastern Time
From January 2026 onwards, the Employment Situation returns to the familiar rhythm of early-month Friday releases at 8:30 a.m. ET, which markets often refer to as "NFP Friday".
The BLS usually releases the Employment Situation report on the first Friday of the month, or the second Friday if there is a holiday.
In 2025, that pattern broke down because:
A 43-day federal government shutdown starting on 1 October 2025 forced the BLS to halt data collection and publication for October.
As a result, the October Employment Situation report was cancelled outright.
The September report itself was delayed from early October to 20 November 2025.
The BLS then announced that:
It would not retroactively collect October household data.
It would release October and November payrolls together in the November Employment Situation report, scheduled for 16 December 2025.
This is why traders are now focusing on a Tuesday, December release, which is unusual for NFP, instead of the standard Friday slot.
The upcoming report is carrying extra weight because:
The latest published non-farm payroll figure, for September 2025, showed an increase of just 119,000 jobs, reinforcing the picture of a cooling labour market.
The Federal Reserve has just delivered a third consecutive 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the federal funds rate to 3.5–3.75%, and it is signalling only limited easing in 2026.
Unemployment has climbed to about 4.4%, the highest in nearly four years.
ADP private payrolls for November showed an unexpected decline of 32,000 jobs, which has increased anxiety about the official figures.
Weekly jobless claims have become more volatile, with the latest data showing a jump of 44,000 to 236,000.
Because of these factors, it will heavily shape expectations for early-2026 Fed policy and, by extension, moves in the dollar, yields and equities.
| Reference month (2025) | Release date (2025) | Non farm payroll change (thousand, sa) | Unemployment rate (%) | Key notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 7 February | +143 | 4.0 | Solid start to the year, with gains led by health care, retail trade and social assistance. |
| February | 7 March | +151 | 4.1 | Hiring broadly in line with the prior twelve-month average, with health care and financial activities still adding jobs. |
| March | 4 April | +228 | 4.2 | Strongest monthly gain of the year, boosted by social assistance, transportation and warehousing, and the return of some strike-affected workers. |
| April | 2 May | +177 | 4.2 | Payroll growth roughly in line with the prior year’s average. |
| May | 6 June | +139 | 4.2 | Clear moderation, with hiring concentrated in health care, leisure and hospitality and social assistance. |
| June | 3 July | +147 | 4.1 | Job gains led by state government and health care; the unemployment rate remained in the narrow 4.0–4.2 percent band. |
| July | 1 August | +73 | 4.2 | Hiring “"changed little," signalling a clear loss of momentum since spring; |
| August | 5 September | +22 (later revised to −4) | 4.3 | Essentially flat payrolls with a small gain initially reported; unemployment ticked up to 4.3 percent as the labour market cooled further. |
| September | 20 November (delayed) | +119 | 4.4 | Off-cycle release due to the shutdown |
| October | - | No Employment Situation report published | - | BLS did not publish an October Employment Situation due to the federal funding lapse |
| November | Due 16 December | To be released (consensus ≈ +50) | To be released (consensus ≈ 4.4) | Delayed November report will include October establishment data |
Capital Economics and several other macro shops have published previews suggesting that:
Payrolls likely rebounded by around +50,000 jobs in November after a one-off slump linked to federal payroll disruptions in October.
The unemployment rate is expected to hold near 4.4%, which is not recessionary but clearly above the sub-4% prints seen in 2022–2023.
That modest gain aligns with a slowly cooling labour market, not a collapse, and matches the Fed's messaging that the economy has transitioned from "overheated" to 'more balanced" conditions.
From a trading perspective, the broad setup going into the release looks like this:
A print well above 100,000 would revive talk that the labour market is still too tight, potentially pushing yields and the dollar higher again.
A print around 50,000 or below would support the "soft landing with cooling jobs" narrative and could reinforce the recent dollar slide while supporting risk assets.
The next US non-farm payrolls report, officially called the Employment Situation, will be released on Tuesday, 16 December 2025, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, covering data for November 2025.
Because of the 2025 federal government shutdown, the BLS had to delay the collection and processing of October and November labour data.
The last published US non-farm payrolls figure, for September 2025, showed a gain of about +119,000 jobs.
According to the revised data schedule, the Employment Situation for December 2025 is due on Friday, 9 January 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET
In conclusion, the next US non-farm payrolls report is unusually timed, but very clearly defined. Traders and investors should circle Tuesday, 16 December 2025, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time as the moment when the BLS finally delivers a full update on the labour market, including the missing October payrolls and the November numbers.
The following report for December 2025 is set for Friday, 9 January 2026, which will bring the calendar back to a more normal pattern.
For traders and macro investors, that combination makes this jobs report more than a routine checkpoint. It is a test of how far the labour market has cooled, and how willing markets are to keep pricing in easier policy and higher risk assets into 2026.
Disclaimer: This material is for general information purposes only and is not intended as (and should not be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by EBC or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.
