2025-10-02
Many analysts and market watchers are pointing to late 2025, especially October or Q4, as a potential inflexion point for a renewed crypto bull run, driven by macro tailwinds, rate easing, ETF momentum, and strong fundamentals in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins.
What's holding things back? The strength of the U.S. dollar, regulatory uncertainty, and ongoing liquidations pose real risks. However, considering the present positioning, the environment appears conducive for an extended bull cycle, potentially lasting until early 2026.
In this article, we'll walk through the landscape: where we are now, what could trigger the next leg, near-term timing, key metrics to watch, and how you might position yourself prudently.
Before looking forward, let's anchor in reality: what do we see today?
Bitcoin and major cryptos have rallied strongly in 2025. For instance, Q2 saw Bitcoin up ~31% QoQ. Ethereum similarly rebounded ~37% in Q2 2025, finishing at ~$2,487.
Still, markets remain unstable as significant leverage liquidations continue to happen regularly.
Goldman Sachs has increased its exposure to crypto ETFs and is viewed as a supportive institutional backer. Other firms (like Standard Chartered, JPMorgan) have issued bullish or cautious scenarios depending on regulatory clarity.
Bernstein analysts argue the bull market may stretch into 2026, driven by institutional flows rather than pure retail hype. [1]
At the same time, some price forecasts suggest Bitcoin could hit $200,000 by the end of 2025 or early 2026.
Several analysts anticipate that the upcoming bullish phase will start in October, potentially reaching a peak in the fourth quarter. The idea is that macro loosening, ETF flow, and momentum alignment could coincide in autumn.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) appears to be bottoming and might resume strength, which could pressure risk assets.
Some analysts warn the current bull may have limited upside, estimating only 60 days of growth left before a pullback.
Bitcoin faced strong resistance at $116,000 to $120,000. Breaking that zone is often seen as necessary for the next sustained leg up.
Thus, at present, we're in a phase of consolidation, testing liquidity, and rotating flows rather than runaway momentum.
Putting together the current state and trigger mechanics, let's map plausible paths to kickoff:
October 2025 (Q4): This month is flagged by multiple analysts as a possible "bull run start" month. [2]
Sustained run through late 2025 and into early 2026: If momentum sticks and institutional buying continues, the cycle could carry over into 2026. Bernstein sees the bull run as "long and exhausting."
Thus, if you're timing entry, late summer into early fall 2025 seems like the window with the most alignment.
Here's a simplified scenario table to clarify the ranges and assumptions:
| Scenario | BTC Price Range 2025 | Key Assumptions |
|---|---|---|
| Bear | $80,000 – $100,000 | Strong USD, regulatory crackdown, macro stress |
| Base | $120,000 – $150,000 | Moderate Fed easing + sustained ETF inflows |
| Bull | $180,000 – $200,000+ | Momentum, institutional adoption, breakout above resistance |
Bear in mind: these are speculative ranges, not guarantees.
A bull run in crypto is rarely "random"; it tends to follow known catalysts and structural inflexion points. Here are the triggers that historically and likely will matter:
| Trigger | What It Does | Why It Matters in 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Rate cuts / monetary easing | Lowers discount rates, supports risk assets | Markets are pricing in cuts, and any dovish pivot helps re-rating |
| ETF & institutional inflows | Infuses capital and legitimacy | U.S. spot Bitcoin & ETH ETFs remain structural drivers |
| Regulatory clarity | Reduces uncertainty premium | Clear rules can unlock latent capital |
| Utility & adoption growth | Strengthens fundamentals in Ethereum and protocols | L2s, DeFi, staking expansion can broaden participation |
| Breakout above key resistance | Confirms momentum and triggers cascade moves | Breaking $116K–$120K may legitimize the bull leg |
| Macro regime shift & liquidity | Enables more capital to flow into risk assets | If global liquidity loosens, crypto generally benefits |
In 2025, many analysts and platforms point specifically to ETF developments, institutional adoption, and rate easing as critical levers for the next rally.
Ethereum is not just a follower; it has its own performance and structural signals to watch.
In Q2 2025, ETH surged approximately 37%, finishing at around $2,487, supported by nearly $4B in net inflows to ETH spot ETFs. [3]
Its staking share and locked supply were notable; the staked ETH removes a portion of the supply from active trading.
On-chain metrics, TVL in L2S, developer activity, and gas usage remain critical gauges of health.
For altcoins like Solana, Avalanche, and Layer-2 ecosystems, their upside will often depend on breadth and rotation after Bitcoin and Ethereum establish direction.
Here are the metrics and signals you should monitor to see whether a bull run is truly underway:
Sustained ETF inflows (BTC/ETH)
Breakout volume & clean price structure
Falling real interest rates
Regulatory positive developments / favourable rulings
Increasing on-chain activity (addresses, transactions, protocol usage)
Altcoin breadth expanding beyond Bitcoin
Institutional news or FIs signalling entry
If several of these align, the bull run likely isn't far behind.
A bull run is never assured. Here are the biggest risks:
Stronger U.S. dollar / rising real yields
Regulatory clampdowns or negative rulings
Mass liquidations & leverage unwind
False breakouts/traps
Macro shocks
Many believe Q4 2025 (October onward) is the most likely window, driven by ETF activity and policy easing.
Forecasts vary widely: some predict around $150,000 by late 2025, while Bernstein analysts project Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by early 2026, assuming institutional inflows remain strong.
Yes. Ethereum tends to follow Bitcoin's lead, but with added upside from DeFi, staking, and Layer-2 growth.
Yes. If the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) strengthens again, it could pressure crypto assets by tightening liquidity. Many analysts highlight this as the top risk for 2025.
Analysts believe this cycle could be a "long and exhausting bull market," stretching into 2026, unlike previous short, explosive rallies dominated by retail speculation.
Not yet. While Bitcoin touched $116K in mid-2025, the rally stalled amid liquidations and macro uncertainty. Many analysts believe we are currently in a consolidation phase rather than experiencing a complete bull run.
In conclusion, the strongest window for the next crypto bull run appears to be October 2025, with momentum possibly carrying into early 2026.
As we move into 2026, the question isn't just how high Bitcoin will rise, but whether this cycle will evolve into a steadier, institution-led expansion rather than a purely speculative sprint.
If you're thinking ahead, watch for ETF inflows, real yields, regulatory signals, and strength beyond just Bitcoin to altcoins. Pace your entries, manage your risk, and be ready to ride what could become one of the more sustainable bull cycles in crypto history.
Disclaimer: This material is for general information purposes only and is not intended as (and should not be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by EBC or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.
[1] https://www.theblock.co/post/362450/bernstein-long-exhausting-crypto-bull-market-bitcoin-200000-by-early-2026
[2] https://coinpedia.org/news/crypto-bull-run-set-to-ignite-this-october-2025/
[3] https://messari.io/report/state-of-ethereum-q2-2025
