Published on: 2026-02-26
RKT reports earnings today, Thursday, February 26, 2026, after the market closes, with the earnings call scheduled for 4:30 p.m. ET.
RKT earnings today are not only an earnings report. It is a read-through on the direction of the U.S. mortgage cycle at a moment when rates are finally easing, with the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.01% as of February 19, 2026, down from 6.09% the prior week.
The most important point is simple. RKT stock is trading around $17.33 going into the release, and Rocket has already hinted that key Q4 operating metrics were strong. The market will assess whether the strength is reflected in the reported results and if the management's outlook indicates a potential for another increase.
A combination of financial and macroeconomic factors influences mortgage stocks. When mortgage rates decrease, refinance activity usually increases first, while purchase demand follows later, influenced by home prices and housing supply.
In mid-February, the average U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to about 6.01%, the lowest level since September 2022. Refinancing activity is improving, despite a sluggish housing market affected by affordability and supply issues.
For Rocket, this matters for two reasons:
Lower rates can lift rate locks and closed-loan volume, which supports revenue.
Falling rates can also increase prepayments, which can pressure the value of mortgage servicing assets, even as originations improve.
That balance between origination momentum and servicing sensitivity is where the surprise often lives on earnings day.
On February 3, 2026, Rocket filed an update stating that it expected to report the highest fourth quarter net rate lock volume and gain-on-sale margin since Q4 2021.
That is not a full earnings pre-release, but it is a big hint. It tells traders that the two most-watched operating levers were trending in the right direction.
In its Q3 2025 results, Rocket guided for Q4 2025 adjusted revenue of $2.1 billion to $2.3 billion.
That range is important because Rocket's "headline" GAAP revenue can be noisy. Many traders focus on adjusted revenue and operating metrics because they better align with underlying production.
Additionally, in Q3 2025, Rocket reported:
Total revenue, net: $1.605B
Adjusted revenue: $1.783B
Adjusted EBITDA: $349M
Mortgage closed loan origination volume: $32.413B
Net rate lock volume: $35.829B
Gain-on-sale margin: 2.80%
Rocket revealed a substantial servicing footprint, reporting an unpaid principal balance of $613 billion, which corresponds to approximately 2.9 million serviced loans. The portfolio generated about $1.7 billion in annual recurring servicing fee income.
EPS: $0.09
Revenue: $2.2401B
Options markets are also pricing an implied weekly move of about 10.56% into the February 27 weekly expiry, and an implied monthly move of about 15.35% into March options.
Using the latest price near $17.33, that translates to a rough "priced range" of:
| Window | Implied move | Implied $ move | Implied range (approx.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly | 10.56% | $1.83 | $15.50 to $19.16 |
| Monthly | 15.35% | $2.66 | $14.67 to $19.99 |
The quickest "win or lose" scorecard is whether Rocket lands:
Below $2.1B: The quarter likely fell short of the company's expectations.
Inside the range: The stock reaction shifts to margins, costs, and forward commentary.
Above $2.3B: The print likely reads as a clean beat on the most-watched headline metric.
Rate locks are a forward indicator. They can lead funded volume by weeks, causing the market to treat them as an early indicator for the next quarter as well.
Rocket has already told investors it expects Q4 net rate lock volume to be the best fourth quarter since 2021. The market will want the actual number, along with context on whether momentum carried over into January and February.
Gain-on-sale margin is where profitability can accelerate quickly when pricing improves or when mix shifts.
Rocket has informed investors that it anticipates the Q4 gain-on-sale margin will be the best fourth quarter since 2021.
If margins come in strong, but management guides them down sharply for Q1, traders often fade the initial pop. The market cares about sustainability, not just a single quarter.
Higher locks only matter if they convert into funded loans. The market will listen for:
What conversion rates looked like in Q4.
Whether the purchase volume held up.
Whether refinancing is now the main growth driver.
Rocket's servicing platform produces recurring fees, but falling rates can also increase refinance churn, which can pressure servicing asset values.
Rocket's last disclosed servicing footprint was significant, with an unpaid principal balance of $613 billion and approximately $1.7 billion in annualized servicing fee income.
Investors will want to know whether servicing economics stayed steady as rates moved lower, and how management sees that trade-off in 2026.
The chart going into earnings is not screaming "breakout." It looks more like a stock sitting in a tug-of-war between event risk and a choppy trend.
| Indicator | Latest value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 45.434 | Neutral |
| MACD (12,26) | -0.15 | Sell |
| ADX (14) | 20.348 | Sell |
| ATR (14) | 0.2714 | Lower day-to-day volatility in this reading |
| Stochastic (9,6) | 36.558 | Sell |
| Moving average | Simple | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| MA5 | 17.27 | Buy |
| MA10 | 17.39 | Sell |
| MA20 | 17.28 | Buy |
| MA50 | 17.84 | Sell |
| MA100 | 18.46 | Sell |
| MA200 | 19.78 | Sell |
This is a clean read. RKT is near short-term averages but still below the longer-term averages, especially the 200-day line.
| Level set | S2 | S1 | Pivot | R1 | R2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Classic | 17.09 | 17.24 | 17.33 | 17.48 | 17.57 |
| Fibonacci | 17.18 | 17.24 | 17.33 | 17.42 | 17.48 |
Key Takeaway
If RKT holds above the pivot zone after the first reaction, the market is often willing to give the move time.
If it breaks below support and cannot reclaim it, the stock can slide quickly, especially when implied volatility is elevated.
Rocket Companies reports results today, February 26, 2026, with a conference call at 4:30 p.m. ET.
Lower mortgage rates can boost refinancing and increase loan demand, but they may also lead to higher prepayments, which can negatively impact servicing economics. This push-and-pull often explains why RKT reacts sharply to guidance and commentary.
Public options-based estimates showed an implied move of about 10.56% for the weekly window and 15.35% for the monthly window around earnings.
In conclusion, RKT earnings today will be judged on conversion, not on excitement. Rocket has already hinted that Q4 rate locks and gain-on-sale margin were the strongest fourth quarter since 2021, and the company guided to $2.1B to $2.3B of adjusted revenue for Q4.
The market now needs the full numbers, plus a forward view that makes the next quarter feel repeatable.
Disclaimer: This material is for general information purposes only and is not intended as (and should not be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by EBC or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.
