Published on: 2026-09-04
Updated on: 2026-09-04
August NFP
4/9/2026 (Fri)
Previous: -23k Forecast: 58k
As the final monthly labor market dataset before the September 15–16 FOMC meeting, August nonfarm payrolls are crucial for the Federal Reserve to gauge the trajectory of the labor market.
U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in July, significantly missing market expectations, while figures for May and June were revised down by a combined 103,000. Although the unemployment rate ticked down from 4.2% to 4.1%, the labor force participation rate also dropped to 61.4%, and average hourly earnings grew 3.2% year-over-year, pointing to signs of a cooling labor market.
The upcoming August data will help the market assess whether the July weakness was driven primarily by short-term factors, or if the labor market is undergoing a broader structural cooling.
A noticeable rebound in August payrolls could ease market concerns over a continued worsening of the labor market; conversely, further weakness would likely reinforce expectations for future interest rate cuts.
