Published on: 2026-02-04
The US January jobs report, known as the Nonfarm Payrolls release (NFP), was scheduled to be published on Friday, 6 February 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. It will not.
The US Labor Department has confirmed that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is delaying the January 2026 Employment Situation report due to a partial federal government shutdown that has halted normal operations.
That delay matters more than it might sound. The January report is not only "another NFP". This release typically features yearly benchmark adjustments and refreshed seasonal factors for payroll, hours, and earnings data, potentially altering the market's perception of last year's trend.
Additionally, there is no confirmed new release date yet. The BLS has said it will resume operations and update the schedule once government funding is restored.
The federal government shutdown is the cause of the delay. The Labor Department confirmed the postponement because the BLS cannot proceed with scheduled releases without approved funding.
The BLS itself has also warned that during a lapse in government services, release dates can change, and calendars are updated only when new dates are finalized.
Simply put, the agency may collect or partly prepare the data, but it cannot publish on its regular timetable while funding is not in place.
The clean answer is this: The January jobs report will be released after the shutdown ends, once the BLS is operating again and has published a revised date.
When the shutdown ends, the process usually looks like this:
The BLS confirms which releases were missed and which are still on time.
The BLS posts revised release dates to its official calendar pages.
The Employment Situation report is released at the standard time window, which is typically 8:30 a.m. ET.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) follows a reliable method for revealing updated dates during operational interruptions. It maintains a specific page for "revised news release dates" and updates it with new dates as they become available.
It is normal for a delayed jobs report to be released days after the government reopens, rather than instantly, because the BLS needs time to restart systems, finalise processing, and re-run quality checks.
During the October 2013 shutdown, analysis of the data blackout notes that the delayed September employment report was released six days after the shutdown ended.
BLS also has a historical record of issuing an updated release schedule after a lapse in funding, once revised dates are set.
That history does not guarantee the same timeline now, but it gives traders a sensible base case: watch for a rescheduled release shortly after funding is restored, not months later.
This is not only a single-report problem. Other high-value labour releases are also affected.
Delayed items include:
The December JOLTS release.
The Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment release.
The practical impact is that traders lose the ability to cross-check the labour story using multiple official series during the same week.
The January release is the one that typically introduces annual benchmark revisions and seasonal updates to the establishment survey series.
The December 2025 Employment Situation document notes that, effective with the January 2026 release, payroll employment, hours, and earnings data will be revised to reflect the annual benchmark process and updated seasonal adjustment factors.
Furthermore, analysts expected benchmark revisions could materially lower prior 2025 job growth estimates, which is precisely the kind of change that can shift how markets price the economy's momentum.
A data blackout makes pricing less anchored. When traders cannot see the official numbers, short-term moves tend to be driven more by positioning, headlines, and proxy indicators.
The shutdown is creating a "data blackout" that complicates how policymakers and markets assess the economy.
When NFP is missing, traders tend to lean on a "basket" of indicators rather than a single number. For example, despite potential delays, markets can still monitor scheduled reports, such as purchasing manager indexes and private payroll indicators, as well as communications from the Fed.
These indicators do not replace NFP, but they can shape expectations:
Weekly jobless claims (when available), as a near-real-time read on layoffs
Private payroll estimates and business surveys that track hiring intentions
ISM-style activity surveys, which often include employment components
Financial conditions and yields, which show whether markets are tightening or easing on their own
If claims rise and hiring surveys soften, markets may price a weaker NFP before it arrives.
If surveys hold steady and risk assets remain firm, markets may assume NFP is not collapsing, even without the official print.
This can create a noisy setup where narratives swing quickly, especially in USD pairs and rate-sensitive assets.
NFP often triggers a short, sharp reaction because it changes how traders view the Fed's next move. When the data is delayed, pricing tends to shift from "data-driven" to "headline-driven."
That usually means:
Short-term volatility can initially drop because a significant scheduled catalyst is missing.
Event risk can rise later because the rescheduled report becomes a surprise event with less orderly positioning.
Prices may react more sharply than usual if the market has leaned too far in one direction by the time the report is released.
For forex traders, the practical approach is to treat the delayed NFP like a moving target. You should expect a normal trading week to turn into an "event week" as soon as the BLS posts a new date.
There is no confirmed new date yet. The Labor Department stated that the report will be released once government funding is restored and the BLS updates its schedule.
The January 2026 Employment Situation report was initially scheduled for Friday, February 6, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Because the BLS cannot proceed with normal operations and publishing schedules without approved funding.
The January release typically includes annual benchmark revisions and seasonal factor updates, which can change the interpretation of last year's payroll trend.
In conclusion, the most reliable expectation is that the BLS will publish the report after the shutdown ends and will confirm timing through its official release calendars and revised-date announcements.
Until that update arrives, traders should assume two things. Volatility may stay jumpy because markets are forced to trade partial signals.
When the new NFP date is announced, the report can land with more force than usual because positioning will be less orderly than on a normal scheduled Friday.
Disclaimer: This material is for general information purposes only and is not intended as (and should not be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by EBC or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.
