2025-10-06
The Dow and S&P 500 posted record closing highs into Friday, showing the rally held despite the data blackout tied to the shutdown. [1]
Coverage across the weekend kept the focus on records and on missing government releases that trimmed visibility for macro tracking.
Gold rose to a fresh record above 3,900 per ounce on safe‑haven demand and rising odds of easier policy, adding support to risk hedges.
Oil fell roughly 8% for the week on oversupply concerns after OPEC+ signalled a modest output hike from November, though late‑week prices steadied. [2]
The shutdown delayed several U.S. data prints, keeping attention on the FOMC Minutes due Wednesday, Oct 8, for guidance on growth and inflation.
Private payrolls from ADP showed a 32,000 decline, and some forecasters moved Fed cut expectations earlier as labour signals softened.
The yen weakened after Japan's leadership outcome, lifting Japanese equities and pushing USD/JPY higher on policy expectations.
The dollar and U.S. futures wobbled around shutdown headlines as investors weighed delayed data against record equity levels.
AI‑linked tech and semiconductors stayed in leadership, led by mega‑cap momentum and chip strength during the week.
Energy lagged in step with crude's weekly slide as supply headlines dominated flows.
Use this quick calendar to plan for catalysts and positioning into mid‑week and Friday prints.
| Date (local) | Event | Market angle | Watchlist |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed, Oct 8 | FOMC Minutes release | Clues on rate path and inflation tone amid delayed data | USD, 2s10s, S&P 500 |
| Thu, Oct 9 | PepsiCo, Delta, Levi earnings | Read on consumer staples, travel demand, and apparel margins | PEP, DAL, LEVI |
| Fri, Oct 10 | Univ. of Michigan sentiment | Confidence and inflation expectations proxy while official data are delayed | USD, rates, retail |
| Fri, Oct 10 | Canada jobs report | Labour impulse for CAD and TSX cyclicals | CAD crosses, banks |
| Mon, Oct 13 | China trade balance | Demand pulse for Asia and commodities (due next week) | CNH, copper, oil |
A longer shutdown increases event risk by delaying official data and clouding the policy path, which can lift volatility and reduce conviction.
OPEC+ supply steps and oil's response remain a key inflation input and sector driver into November, especially for energy equities and EM balances.
Japan's political outcome and yen moves can continue to steer Asia equities and global FX as investors reset views on policy mix. [3]
Disclaimer: This material is for general information purposes only and is not intended as (and should not be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by EBC or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.
[2] https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-track-steepest-weekly-plunge-3-12-months-2025-10-03/
