Published on: 2026-02-10
Coca-Cola reports fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results today, February 10, before the New York Stock Exchange opens, followed by an investor call at 8:30 a.m. ET.
This earnings report is particularly significant compared to other Coke quarters because KO stock has been hovering near record highs at $77.97, and expectations have been quietly rising.
The options markets are pricing in a potential price move of about 3% in either direction by the end of the week following the report, which is a substantial fluctuation for a defensive consumer staple.
Here is what the market is currently monitoring, including the results likely to impact KO stock today.
Key times (ET):
Earnings release: Before the NYSE open
Conference call: 8:30 a.m. ET
Next major update: CAGNY presentation (February 17, 10:00 a.m. ET)
The presentation on February 17 is crucial as Coke's leadership team is expected to focus more on the outlook and 2026 priorities, which cannot be covered in a single earnings call.
| Item | Street expectation (range) | Why it matters for KO stock |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ~$12.0B | Confirms demand, pricing power, and mix |
| Adjusted EPS | ~$0.56–$0.57 | Tells you how much profit Coke kept after costs |
Consensus expectations are tightly clustered, which is part of the reason KO options are not pricing a huge earnings shock.
The market consensus is around the same range:
Revenue around $12.0 billion
Adjusted EPS around $0.56 to $0.57
Options pricing indicates that traders expect a limited move compared to high-beta earnings names, which aligns with KO's historical profile. OptionSlam lists a weekly implied move of about 3.29% into earnings.
At the current price of approximately $77.97, a 3.29% change would indicate a movement of roughly $2.57 in either direction, translating to a range between about $75.40 and $80.54.
If KO rallies 1% to 2% on a small beat, the move can still fade if guidance does not expand the medium-term narrative.
If KO breaks above the implied range, it usually means guidance surprised, not that the quarter was merely "fine."
Coke can grow in two ways: it can sell more drinks, or it can earn more per drink through pricing and mix.
In Q3, Coke reported 1% global unit case volume growth, alongside that 6% price/mix gain.
Today's market question is straightforward:
Is Coke still growing volumes, or is it leaning mostly on pricing?
If the volume is low and pricing is driving growth, investors may worry that growth will become more challenging in the upcoming year.
Organic revenue strips out currency and structural items and is one of Coke's cleanest "health checks."
In the third quarter, Coca-Cola reported a 6% organic revenue growth, driven by a 6% increase in price/mix. This indicates that the company has effectively managed pricing while maintaining demand.
What could move the stock today:
A stronger-than-expected organic revenue number, especially if it is driven by both price/mix and improving volume.
A weaker number that signals fading pricing power or consumers trading down.
Margins indicate whether Coke is managing costs effectively or heavily investing to sustain growth.
In Q3, Coke's comparable operating margin stood at 31.9%. Management credited this margin support to organic growth and effective cost control, though it was partially offset by increased marketing investment and currency challenges.
What traders should listen to today:
Whether margin trends are improving, stable, or showing pressure from commodities, packaging, freight, and marketing.
Coca-Cola Zero Sugar is also a key highlight, with double-digit volume growth.
That matters because it is a clean example of KO expanding the brand without relying only on price.
What traders will focus on
Whether zero-sugar growth is still accelerating or holding steady.
Whether innovation is translating into incremental demand rather than internal cannibalization.
KO is heading into a leadership transition. Henrique Braun is set to become CEO on March 31, 2026, succeeding James Quincey, who is expected to continue as Executive Chairman.
Transitions can be positive. However, they may lead management to provide more cautious guidance, especially when the stock is valued for its stability.
What could change the narrative?
A confident 2026 guide that looks achievable without heroic assumptions can reduce the risk premium around the transition.
A cautious guide with wide ranges can trigger a "sell the news" reaction, as KO trades near highs.
Coca-Cola is not a high-growth tech stock. Most investors own it for steady cash flows, resilient demand, and consistent execution. That means guidance is often the main event.
In its Q3 update, Coke laid out its full-year 2025 targets, including:
Organic revenue growth of 5% to 6%
Comparable EPS growth of about 3% versus $2.88 in 2024
Free cash flow (excluding the fairlife contingent consideration payment) of at least $9.8 billion, based on roughly $12.0 billion of operating cash flow, less about $2.2 billion of capex
That tells you the profile investors expect: steady top-line growth, controlled costs, and strong cash generation.
Guidance that supports continued organic revenue growth without heavy reliance on price increases.
A margin outlook that suggests costs are easing or productivity savings are sticking.
FX commentary that is not worsening compared with prior expectations.
A clear slowdown in volume trends, especially in developed markets.
Margin pressure from higher input costs or stepped-up marketing that does not translate into share gains.
A cautious tone on consumer demand or affordability.
KO stock is trading near the upper end of its 52-week range, which is why earnings reactions can become "range decisions."
The latest daily technical snapshot showed:
RSI (14): 51.059 (Neutral)
MACD (12,26): 0.300 (Buy)
50-day moving average: 76.92 (Buy)
200-day moving average: 72.26 (Buy)
| Area | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Immediate pivot | ~$77.99 | This is the "decision" area from daily pivots, often where price stabilizes or accelerates post-news. |
| Support zone | ~$77.66 to ~$77.91 | A break below this zone after earnings can signal that guidance disappointed and buyers are stepping away. |
| Resistance zone | ~$78.15 to ~$78.39 | A clean push above this band can trigger momentum buying if guidance is strong. |
| Trend support | ~$76.92 (MA50) | Many dip buyers defend the 50-day average in "quality" names, especially if guidance is intact. |
| Longer-term support | ~$72.26 (MA200) | This is the line that typically separates "healthy pullback" from a deeper trend change. |
KO does not need a blowout quarter to look technically healthy. It needs to hold the mid-to-high $70s area and avoid a guidance shock that forces a re-pricing of the 2026 path.
Coca-Cola is scheduled to release results before the NYSE opens and host a conference call at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Estimates cluster around $12.0 billion in revenue and $0.56 to $0.57 in adjusted EPS.
The 2026 guidance, as Coca-Cola has already stated, will be included in the Q4 report with a full-year outlook.
Options pricing suggests a move of about 3% in either direction by the end of the week following the report.
In conclusion, Coca-Cola's earnings today will likely be evaluated based on its future outlook rather than its previous quarter. The market expects a steady print, so the real question is whether Coke can deliver healthy organic growth while maintaining volume stability and protecting margins.
If 2026 guidance supports continued growth with manageable currency and cost pressures, KO stock can justify trading near record levels. If guidance is cautious or if volume trends appear weaker than investors expected, the stock may decline despite an EPS beat.
Disclaimer: This material is for general information purposes only and is not intended as (and should not be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by EBC or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.
