Speculators are digesting ‘peak euro’

2023-09-18
Summary:

The dollar's nine-week winning streak, its longest since 2014, saw hedge funds reduce net short positions by nearly $5 billion last week, per CFTC data.

The dollar was up nine weeks in a row, the longest winning streak since 2014. Hedge funds cut their net short dollar positions by nearly $5 billion last week, according to CFTC.


This came as the dollar has rallied for a few months despite investor expectations that the Fed’s tightening cycle had nearly come to its end.


It was sixth week out seven that speculators increased their net long bets on the greenback, while funds cut net long euro positions to the smallest since November.


The ECB cut its eurozone growth forecast for this year from 0.9% to 0.7% and for next year from 1.5% to 1%, and lifted its forecast for inflation this year from 5.4% to 5.6% and for next year from 3% to 3.2%, at the policy meeting last week.


That decision was believed to be the most critical one in over a year. More dovish officials were deeply concerned about weak growth, cooling labour market as well as energy prices resurgence though the ECB chief said a ‘solid majority’ favoured a hike.


The ECB also repudiated the idea that it was done with inflation fight. It said rates will stay high for longer and could even rise further if needed.

EURUSD

The euro is still stuck in a descending channel after peaking out in July. A range-bound trading will be likely held ahead of the Fed’s meeting later this week which will offer clues on interest rate path.


Disclaimer: This material is for general information purposes only and is not intended as (and should not be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by EBC or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

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