2025-09-24
Nvidia (NVDA) is in the spotlight after announcing it will invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI to help build AI infrastructure, with OpenAI committing to buy Nvidia's next-generation chips.
As of late September 2025, Nvidia trades near $178.43 USD per share (closing $178.43). Many investors and analysts now ask: Where can Nvidia go by the end of 2025? What price targets are realistic, and how much upside does the OpenAI tie-up justify?
This article explores the fundamentals, risks, and technical aspects, and provides price predictions based on various scenarios.
By investing in OpenAI, Nvidia becomes both a supplier and stakeholder in one of the most influential AI platforms globally. This ensures a committed buyer for its chips and deeper integration into AI infrastructure.
The deal includes the deployment of at least 10 gigawatts of Nvidia systems in OpenAI data centres, guaranteeing long-term demand. [1]
Some critics point out the "circularity" risk (Nvidia invests, then OpenAI buys its chips), which might obscure whether Nvidia is generating new profits or merely recycling capital.
However, analysts argue that in practice, it locks in a buyer for high-margin future product generations, which can protect margins and reduce competitive risk.
Following the announcement of its $100 billion strategic investment in OpenAI, Nvidia's stock jumped nearly 4–5% intraday, reflecting strong positive sentiment.
However, it also saw pullbacks: after hitting a record high (~$183+), the stock later slipped to ~$181.11, as investors weighed the uncertainties of the deal.
Additionally, from a technical perspective:
Support zone: ~$165 (a likely floor on meaningful pullbacks)
Resistance and breakout threshold: ~$185–190 (if it breaks above, further upside momentum may follow)
Indicators such as RSI have recently returned to bullish territory following the breakout from a symmetrical triangle, indicating potential for further upward movement.
Regardless, the news also spurred multiple upward revisions of analyst targets, reflecting new optimism that the OpenAI tie-in could be a structural growth lever.
According to MarketBeat, among 45 analysts, the average 12-month price target for NVDA is $208.76, representing ~17% upside from the current level of $178.43.
TipRanks displays a comparable outlook of an average target of around $212.27 (range: $100 – $250), indicating a potential increase of roughly 15–20%.
On the other hand, some analyst models (24/7 Wall Street) offer a more conservative base case of $194.30 for year-end 2025, with upside cases pushing higher. [2]
Lastly, Goldman Sachs reaffirmed a Buy rating and target of $200 in August 2025, citing strength in AI infrastructure demand and its Rubin and Blackwell roadmap.
1) Growth driven by increasing AI infrastructure demand and the OpenAI partnership (especially in the deployment of new chip systems like Vera Rubin). [3]
2) Margin expansion as production scales, costs fall, and economies of scale kick in. However, this depends heavily on yield, competition, and supply chain constraints.
3) That the "circular financing" critique (Nvidia investing in OpenAI, which in turn will buy Nvidia hardware) does not materially detract from recognised revenue or raise accounting or regulatory overhang.
4) Assumptions of stable macro conditions (interest rates, global demand, and no major chip supply bottlenecks) and a manageable regulatory burden.
Below are three modelling scenarios (bull, base, bear) to estimate where Nvidia stock might head by the end of 2025:
| Scenario | Key Assumptions | Estimated Target (USD) | Upside / Downside vs Current (~178.4) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | OpenAI partnership scales far faster, margins expand, AI demand accelerates, regulatory risk minimal | $250 - $280 | ~40–55% upside |
| Base | Moderate growth, OpenAI deal adds steady revenue, margin gains modest | $210 - $220 | ~15–25% upside |
| Bear | Slower AI adoption, circular risk dampens margin, regulatory constraints | $150 - $180 | ~15% downside to flat |
These ranges align with many of the current analyst revisions and technical projections. For instance, the measured move from a breakout pattern forecasts around $207.64, while an extended bar or pattern analysis suggests a possible ~$255.
1) Short-Term Traders:
Volatility is high as the current pullbacks and breakouts create trading opportunities. Use tight stops and manage position sizing.
2) Long-Term Investors:
If you believe in AI secular growth, you might consider entering gradually (e.g. on dips). The OpenAI deal adds strategic tailwinds, but patience may be required.
3) Cautious and Yield-Focused Investors:
If you prioritise capital preservation over upside, waiting for clearer earnings clarity or regulatory signals might be safer.
1. Circularity & Accounting Risk: If much of OpenAI's purchase is tied to Nvidia's own investment, it could obscure incremental gain.
2. Regulatory and Antitrust Scrutiny: The scale and vertical intertwining might be challenged by regulators.
3. Overvaluation Risk: Nvidia's valuation is already premium; markets are expecting continued exponential growth.
4. Supply Chain Constraints, Chip Manufacturing & Yield Issues: Scaling next-gen chips is difficult.
5. Competition and Substitution: If rivals produce competitive chips or OpenAI builds more proprietary hardware, Nvidia's dominance could be eroded.
The average 12-month price target from around 45 analysts is $208.76, suggesting approximately 17% potential growth from the current price of about $178.43.
Barclays raised its target from $170 to $200, citing the deal as a "compute bonanza."
Most analyst consensus leans "Moderate Buy" or "Strong Buy." The consensus target of ~$208 suggests optimism with moderate risk tolerance.
In conclusion, Nvidia's $100 billion investment in OpenAI is more than a headline-grabbing move; it's a strategic bet that could define the next decade of AI infrastructure.
For investors, the message is clear: Nvidia remains one of the most powerful plays on AI adoption, but it is not without volatility. Long-term believers may see dips as opportunities, while short-term traders can benefit from the sharp swings created by news flow.
Disclaimer: This material is for general information purposes only and is not intended as (and should not be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by EBC or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.
[1] https://www.reuters.com/business/nvidia-invest-100-billion-openai-2025-09-22/
[2] https://247wallst.com/forecasts/2025/09/23/nvidia-nvda-price-prediction-and-forecast/
[3] https://www.ft.com/content/7cee5e77-2618-4ed4-b600-aee22238d07a
