A positive yield curve can mean Fed cuts or long-end pressure. Here are four markets traders can watch for clues: the dollar, gold, US indices and EM FX.
Goldman expects central banks to keep buying gold, but traders still need to watch the US dollar, real yields, ETF flows, and cash-driven selling risk.
US inflation stayed high, with CPI expected at 4.2%. Rising fuel costs and slowing wage gains continued to squeeze households and influence voter sentiment.
US nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 85,000 in May, down from 115,000 in April, reflecting slower job growth while hiring demand remains resilient.
May ADP payrolls are expected to increase by 110,000. Strong private-sector hiring signals a resilient labor market, lowering expectations for Fed rate cuts.
US core PCE inflation is expected to rise to 3.3% in April as soaring energy costs fueled price pressures, while Fed officials remained divided on policy.
