2025-06-13
Current Rate (August 15, 2025): ~1.166
Forecast Range (Next 6 Months):
Short-term (August–October): Most projections keep EUR/USD in a wide 1.15–1.18 range. Some models suggest a possible rally towards 1.1760–1.1800 if Eurozone risks subside, but significant resistance exists near 1.18. Downside moves to 1.1500 or below are possible on renewed USD strength or trade setbacks.
Medium-term (November–January): Analysts' consensus is for gradual Euro resilience, but strong dollar demand could see the pair drift towards 1.15 or even the 1.13 handle by early 2026 if global uncertainties persist.
As of August 15, 2025, EUR/USD trades around 1.166, having rebounded from lows of 1.1600 earlier in the week. The pair's recovery since June has been tied to a bounce in Eurozone data and broad-market risk appetite, but the price remains capped under June's highs near 1.1700–1.1760.
Near-Term (August–September 2025):
The technical bias is neutral to slightly bullish, with resistance at 1.1700/1.1760/1.1790 and support at 1.1600/1.1550/1.1500.
A bullish breakout above 1.18 could target 1.20–1.23, but this is only likely if ECB/Fed surprises markets or risk sentiment turns sharply positive.
Failure to clear 1.18/1.1790 likely keeps the pair trapped in a broad 1.15–1.17 range, with risk of fresh drops if support at 1.1550 gives way.
Medium-Term (October–January 2026):
Forecasters see EUR/USD staying pressured by US policy, trade headwinds, and slow Eurozone growth.
Most reputable models call for EUR/USD to gravitate to 1.15 and, if the downtrend resumes, to 1.13 in early 2026, unless dovish Fed cuts materialise or trade risks fade.
Central Bank Policy:
ECB (European Central Bank):
ECB rates are unchanged at 2.00%. The council signalled a 'higher for longer' approach and only limited scope for additional cuts in 2025. Inflation is anchored at 2.0%, but persistent uncertainty (especially over trade) means further easing is on hold, barring economic shocks.
Fed (US Federal Reserve):
Fed funds remain 4.25–4.50% as of July, with policymakers divided, but market pricing now leans towards at least one 0.25% cut by year-end if inflation or jobs data weakens. The Fed's tone is cautious due to sticky inflation (core CPI July: 3.1%), but jobs data softening and trade tariffs are moderating outlooks.
Economic Data:
Eurozone Q2 GDP grew just 0.1% QoQ, with weak output from Germany and Italy offset by Spain and Portugal. Annual growth is 1.4%.
US GDP growth has slowed due to tariffs and weaker consumer spending, but it remains above 2%. US inflation (headline: 2.7% in July) is running above target and underpinning the dollar.
Geopolitics and Market Sentiment:
Fresh US tariffs on European goods in August are hurting the euro. Eurozone faces persistent political uncertainty (Germany, France) and risk of further trade retaliation.
Safe-haven flows into USD intensify during risk-off moves and US election uncertainty.
Global appetite for risk (stocks, commodities) continues to determine daily swings.
Support: 1.1600, 1.1550, key zone 1.1500. A break below 1.1500 triggers the next leg lower towards 1.1420 or even 1.1300 on strong USD surges.
Resistance: 1.1700, 1.1760, major hurdle 1.1790. A clear break opens up the 1.18–1.20 zone.
Indicators (RSI, MACD): Slightly bullish, RSI in the low 50s, but not overbought. Momentum appears to be fading near resistance.
Current trends: Choppy, with bullish attempts being capped at resistance and dips being bought near 1.16.
1. Trend Following:
Buy pullbacks to support (1.1600/1.1550), sell rallies to resistance (1.1760/1.1790). Confirm with moving averages, follow market reaction to data, and adjust as trends emerge.
2. Range Trading:
If EUR/USD remains between 1.15 and 1.18, look for short-term buys at lows and sells at highs.
3. Breakout Trading:
Watch for a break above 1.1790/1.18 for further upside, or below 1.1500 for a downside extension.
4. Event-Driven Trading:
React to US CPI, Eurozone PMI, and central bank meetings. Keep risk limited ahead of big news.
FAQs
What is the EUR/USD forecast for the rest of 2025?
Most analysts see EUR/USD staying in a 1.15–1.18 range through the end of 2025, with the risk of a push towards 1.13–1.14 if risk-off conditions return or Fed remains hawkish.
Will the Euro rise or fall against the Dollar?
The near-term bias is mixed. A break above 1.1790/1.18 opens a bullish scenario towards 1.20, but the Eurozone's weak growth and US policy strength keep downside risks alive. Failure to hold 1.16/1.1550 could signal a larger slide.
What are the key factors that affect EUR/USD right now?
Central bank policy, US-Europe trade tensions, latest economic data (inflation, jobs, GDP), and geopolitical sentiment drive short- and long-term movements.
Which trading strategies work best for EUR/USD now?
Trend and range strategies work best in the current range-bound environment. Breakout trades may pay off if resistance at 1.18 or support at 1.15 breaks decisively.
Where can I follow live EUR/USD moves?
Most forex brokers, market apps, and financial news sites provide live charts and hourly updates. The ECB and Fed websites offer policy and economic updates.
The EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.1656 as of August 15, 2025. Projections through year-end favour a choppy but range-bound market between 1.15 and 1.18, with risk events and policy shifts determining breakouts. Staying flexible and adapting strategies around clear technical levels remains key for traders seeking opportunity in this dynamic pair.
Disclaimer: This material is for general information purposes only and is not intended as (and should not be considered to be) financial, investment, or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by EBC or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.
