Published on: 2026-01-21
Vietnam's stock market is approaching a historic inflection point as institutional reforms begin to translate into tangible market outcomes. The issuance of Resolution No. 79-NQ/TW on the development of the state-owned economy marks more than a policy adjustment. It represents a decisive shift in how capital markets are positioned within Vietnam's long-term growth strategy. By addressing long-standing structural bottlenecks around ownership concentration, market accessibility and free-float availability, Resolution 79 is increasingly viewed as a critical enabler for renewed foreign capital inflows and the long-anticipated upgrade of Vietnam's equity market status.
Resolution 79, in conjunction with Law No. 56/2024/QH15, introduces a powerful mechanism that compels state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to restructure ownership and improve market liquidity. Under the revised framework, listed companies are required to have at least 100 non-controlling shareholders holding a minimum of 10% of voting shares, directly pressuring enterprises with highly concentrated state ownership, often exceeding 90%, to accelerate strategic divestment. This shift materially increases free-float levels, a prerequisite for both deeper liquidity and greater institutional participation.
The timing is particularly notable given recent foreign investor behaviour. After a record net sell-off in 2025 totalling VND135.3 trillion (approximately USD5.2 billion), marking the third consecutive year of net foreign outflows, early signs of reversal have emerged. According to Mekong ASEAN, foreign investors recorded net purchases of VND 1.7 trillion in December 2025, followed by an additional VND 500 billion in the first trading sessions of 2026. The reopening of foreign ownership limits in leading SOEs is increasingly viewed as the key magnet drawing institutional investors back into the market.
"Vietnam should capitalise on this renewed momentum," said Samuel Hertz, Head of APAC at EBC Financial Group ("EBC"). "As the market moves closer to an upgrade from Frontier to Emerging status, free circulation of foreign capital is crucial. Current foreign ownership limits in Vietnamese-listed companies remain materially lower than regional peers, constraining the ability of global funds to increase allocations, particularly in sector leaders where foreign room is already fully utilised."
For global index providers such as MSCI and FTSE Russell, Vietnam's primary challenge has never been market size, but rather market accessibility and free-float adequacy. Resolution 79 directly addresses this imbalance by redefining the role of the state economy to focus on nationally strategic sectors, thereby creating legal and political space for deeper divestment and higher foreign ownership in non-core industries. This reform enhances the invest-ability of large-cap, state-linked companies, enabling more effective deployment of capital by major ETFs and passive funds.
In parallel, the anticipated IPOs of major SOEs such as Agribank, VNPT and MobiFone are expected to significantly expand Vietnam's investable universe. These listings would create a new generation of large-scale, high-quality assets capable of meeting the allocation thresholds of global asset managers such as BlackRock and Vanguard, fundamentally altering Vietnam's profile within emerging market portfolios.
"Resolution 79 acts as the ignition point for Vietnam's market upgrade," Hertz commented. "By resolving the contradiction between headline market capitalization and actual invest-ability, Vietnam is not only aligning with the quantitative criteria of MSCI and FTSE Russell but also sending a clear signal of transparency and openness. This is the passport that allows Vietnam's stock market to exit frontier status and position itself as a preferred destination for global capital over the coming decade."
The banking sector stands out as the primary beneficiary of Resolution 79, accounting for nearly 40% of total market capitalisation. The government's objective of placing at least three state-owned commercial banks among Asia's top 100 by total assets implies substantial capital expansion. As of the end of Q3 2025, Vietcombank, VietinBank and BIDV reported total assets of approximately VND 2.3 quadrillion, VND 2.7 quadrillion and VND 3.0 quadrillion respectively. Achieving regional benchmarks will require sustained asset growth of 13–17% annually, according to VnEconomy. Resolution 79 facilitates this process by allowing profit retention and strategic equity sales, strengthening capital adequacy ratios and reinforcing the re-rating potential of Vietnam's banking stocks.
Energy and oil & gas represent the second pillar, anchored by national security priorities. Large-scale projects in offshore wind and nuclear power demand significant capital and advanced technology, positioning enterprises such as GAS, PVS and PVN to benefit from preferential approval mechanisms and access to international financing channels.
Technology emerges as the third growth pillar, supported by a policy commitment to raise R&D expenditure to 2% of GDP and allocate at least 3% of annual state budget spending to science, technology and innovation. This framework is expected to generate substantial demand for domestic technology firms, accelerating national digital transformation.
From EBC's perspective, Vietnam's equity market is aligning favourable macro timing, structural reform and investor sentiment. With Earnings Per Share (EPS) growth forecast at 18–20% in 2026, current market valuations remain compelling relative to regional peers such as Thailand and Indonesia. Supported by recovering foreign inflows and the banking sector's dominance, the VN-Index is expected to overcome long-standing psychological barriers and approach the 2,000-point level as early as Q1 2026, potentially between mid-February and early March.
The return of foreign capital carries significance beyond market performance. It represents a vote of confidence in Vietnam's macroeconomic stability and the credibility of institutional reforms embodied by Resolution 79. As the stock market continues to function as the economy's most important capital-mobilization channel, these reforms position Vietnam to enter a new phase of development: one defined not only by growth, but by depth, resilience and global integration.
Disclaimer: This material is for information only and does not constitute a recommendation or advice from EBC Financial Group and all its entities ("EBC"). Trading Forex and Contracts for Difference (CFDs) on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Before trading, you should carefully consider your trading objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and consult an independent financial advisor if necessary. Statistics or past investment performance are not a guarantee of future performance. EBC is not liable for any damages arising from reliance on this information.
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