Summary:
Oil was set to trim gains as Middle East risks eased, but prices rose Friday due to higher US fuel demand during the summer driving season.
Oil was set to pare some gains on easing concerns over Middle East supply risks, although prices rose on Friday as the summer driving season ramped up fuel demand in the US.
Options markets suggest the probability of a disruption of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz is just 4% following the Iran-Israel ceasefire, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note on Thursday.
They also show a 60% chance that Brent will stay in the $60s in three months and a 28% probability they would exceed $70, according to the bank. The ceasefire deal appeared to be holding.
But Iranian authorities have carried out a wave of arrests and multiple executions of people suspected of links to Israeli intelligence agencies, which many fear is a way to silence dissent.
US crude oil and fuel inventories fell more expected last week as refining activity and demand rose, according to the EIA. Adding to price support, the dollar index was close to a three-year low.
Asia's crude oil imports surged in June to the highest level in two and a half years. The rationale could be the low prices in April, when most of the June arriving cargoes were sold to Asia.
Brent crude has returned to the level before Israel attacked Iran, and 50 SMA acts as a support. It will likely be bound by a tight range until more clarity on trade talks, so it is recommended to sell the rally.
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