Published on: 2026-02-09
South Africa was among the countries delisted
from the European Union's (EU) Anti-Money Laundering and Countering the
Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) high-risk list since 29 January 2026. Since
then, the attention has turned to the price of compliance friction.
International Monetary Fund (IMF) research suggests grey listing can be
associated with a 7.6% of GDP hit to capital inflows on average, which is why
the follow-through matters more than the label. EBC Financial Group (EBC) says
the immediate question is operational: whether EU counterparties shorten
onboarding timelines and reduce manual holds for routine transactions. Over
time, those small process changes are what can support lower transaction costs
and, eventually, softer funding spreads.
David Barrett, Chief Executive Officer at EBC Financial Group (UK) Ltd., said, "This delisting is not a victory lap. It is a test of whether risk pricing catches up with reform. The next signal investors will watch is not a statement, but settlement experience: how quickly EU-linked onboarding, trade finance checks and payment approvals start to move."
The EU's update removed South Africa from the bloc's AML/CFT high-risk third-country list, following progress recognised by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF). Delisting does not switch off AML/CFT obligations. It removes the automatic "list-driven" trigger for enhanced due diligence, but banks can still apply tougher internal policies if their risk appetite has not changed.
National Treasury has previously said EU-required enhanced due diligence added friction through heavier checks, more documents, ongoing monitoring and senior sign-offs, affecting trade, payments and investment. That backdrop matters because South Africa is not dealing with a small pipeline. South African Revenue Service (SARS) data show exports of R164.3bn and imports of R141.1bn in December 2025, underscoring how costly delays can become when compliance timelines stretch. That left a preliminary trade surplus of about R23.2bn for the month.
In the near term, the biggest swing factor is whether EU-linked counterparties actually re-tier risk. Some institutions will move quickly once the legal trigger is gone; others will wait for more evidence, especially on supervision, prosecutions and beneficial ownership enforcement.
Barrett added: "Markets price certainty more than applause. If reform continues to show up in enforcement and transparency, the benefit should appear in narrower risk premia and smoother euro-linked settlement. If momentum fades, delisting becomes a headline without a spread change."
For FX and gold markets, delisting is best read as a risk-friction story, not a guaranteed inflow wave. It can support confidence at the margin, but currencies will still be driven by rates, inflation paths, fiscal credibility and global risk appetite.
EBC Financial Group treats regulatory shifts like this as part of trader education because they shape liquidity, execution conditions and cross-border sentiment. Clients can follow our market coverage and risk-learning resources through the EBC Learning Academy, alongside access to global FX and metals markets via EBC's trading platforms.
Disclaimer: This material is for information only and does not constitute a recommendation or advice from EBC Financial Group and all its entities ("EBC"). Trading Forex and Contracts for Difference (CFDs) on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Before trading, you should carefully consider your trading objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and consult an independent financial advisor if necessary. Statistics or past investment performance are not a guarantee of future performance. EBC is not liable for any damages arising from reliance on this information.
