Summary:
The Fed will raise its benchmark overnight interest rate by 25 basis points to the 5.25%-5.50% range on July 26, according to all 106 economists polled by Reuters, with a majority still saying that will be the last increase of the current tightening cycle.
The Fed's July meeting
2023.7.27(Thursday)02:00
Previous (June): 5.00-5.25% Forecast: 5.25-5.50%
What to watch for：
Is July ‘peak Fed’?
The Fed will raise its benchmark overnight interest rate by 25 basis points to the 5.25%-5.50% range on July 26, according to all 106 economists polled by Reuters, with a majority still saying that will be the last increase of the current tightening cycle.
Former Chair Ben Bernanke agreed. He said the Fed will want to see a better balance between demand and supply in the labour market before declaring victory in its fight against inflation.
Does the Fed see that underlying inflation has been less sticky?
A resilient economy and historically low unemployment well over a year since the Fed began one of its most aggressive rate hiking campaigns in history has repeatedly confounded analysts and investors.
Inflation is finally falling, with the CPI measure slowing to 3.0% in June from 4.0% in May. That led many observers on Wall Street to conclude inflation might soon be tamed, prompting some to renew bets that rate cuts could happen by as soon as the end of 2023.
Despite the rebound in risk appetite, the Swiss franc has still risen by over 10%. Its close correlation with gold makes it a preferred safe-haven asset.
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PPI figures loom large, with the US dollar and Fed rate expectations set for a potential shift.
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Oil prices rose on Thursday, recovering from the previous session's losses, as the upcoming Trump-Putin meeting increased market risk premiums.
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