Sterling remains in doldrums after Powell speech
2024-02-01
Summary:
Despite lower-than-expected private payroll increases last month, the US dollar continued to rise against the pound on Thursday after the Fed meeting.
The US dollar kept rising against the pound on Thursday following the Fed meeting although the ADP showed that private payrolls increase much fewer than expectations last month.
Chairman Powell downplayed the chance of imminent action. Traders are now pricing in a 38% probability the Fed will cut rates in March, down from 59% ahead of the rate decision.
Earlier this week, respondents to the CNBC Fed Survey also see fewer interest rate cuts than the market’s aggressive outlook. A majority of 70% predict that rates will only go down from June.
England and Wales saw the most company insolvencies since 1993 last year, while Scotland and recorded the highest numbers of company insolvencies since 2012 during the same period.
Rapid increases in energy bills and staff wages are weighing on British businesses. Many households have reduced non-essential spending due to ever-rising inflation.
Economists polled by Reuters last month forecast the BOE would begin to cut rates in the second quarter of this year. The IMF forecast the economy will be the second worst performer across the G7 this year.
Sterling is still trading in a tight range around 1.2700. MACD suggests a potential downward bias and the recent low of 1.2500 is the next major target below the 50 SMA.
Disclaimer: This material is for general information purposes only and is not intended as (and should not be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by EBC or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.
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