Summary:
To curb surging inflation, the Fed has hiked rates 11 times since March 2022, with a September pause. Powell stays cautious about ending the battle.
The Fed's Nov meeting
02 Nov 2023
Previous(Sep)：5.50% | Forecast：5.50%
In a bid to stamp out the highest inflation in four decades, the Fed have made 11 interest rate hikes since March 2022 before a pause in Sep. But Powell is yet convinced that inflation fight is over.
The consumer price index increased 3.7% in September from a year ago, still nearly double the Fed's 2% target. Surprisingly strong retail sales and tight job market continue to signal “higher for longer” path.
The CME 'Fed Watch' tool shows markets are pricing a 26% probability of another 25bps hike in Dec. Top Fed officials indicated that rising yields could substitute for further tightening.
Trump's policies led to US stock outflows, and the dollar's decline widened the asset gap. Emerging markets may attract capital inflows.
2025-04-30
Inflation did not slow down in February, with core PCE up 2.8% year-on-year. Goods prices rose 0.2%, led by entertainment goods and automobile prices.
2025-04-30
Private sector added 155,000 jobs in March, with wages up 4.6%, easing concerns about a labor market and economic slowdown.
2025-04-30
