Summary:
To curb surging inflation, the Fed has hiked rates 11 times since March 2022, with a September pause. Powell stays cautious about ending the battle.
The Fed's Nov meeting
02 Nov 2023
Previous(Sep)：5.50% | Forecast：5.50%
In a bid to stamp out the highest inflation in four decades, the Fed have made 11 interest rate hikes since March 2022 before a pause in Sep. But Powell is yet convinced that inflation fight is over.
The consumer price index increased 3.7% in September from a year ago, still nearly double the Fed's 2% target. Surprisingly strong retail sales and tight job market continue to signal “higher for longer” path.
The CME 'Fed Watch' tool shows markets are pricing a 26% probability of another 25bps hike in Dec. Top Fed officials indicated that rising yields could substitute for further tightening.
Despite the rebound in risk appetite, the Swiss franc has still risen by over 10%. Its close correlation with gold makes it a preferred safe-haven asset.
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PPI figures loom large, with the US dollar and Fed rate expectations set for a potential shift.
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Oil prices rose on Thursday, recovering from the previous session's losses, as the upcoming Trump-Putin meeting increased market risk premiums.
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