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The FOMC will likely deliver its third consecutive quarter of a percentage point rate increase and continue to allow assets to roll off of its nearly $8.6 trillion balance sheet in its year-long campaign to get inflation under control without sending the U.S. economy into a recession.
U.S. Stocks sold off as disappointing earnings and economic data fueled recession fears, sending safe havens higher and oil sharply lower.All three major indexes ended down 1% or more, with NASDAQ plunging nearly 2%, the biggest daily drop since March 9.
The dollar and gold have been stuck in a sideways range, with oil up over 1%.Traders are unwilling to take positions before Thursday’s GDP and PCE reading. U.S. growth and inflation is expected to slow further.
The S&P Global US Composite PMI rose to 53.5 in April 2023, up from 52.3 in the previous month, to signal the quickest upturn in business activity since May 2022.
Weak data weighed on U.S. dollar. Gold hovered around $2,000 and oil plunged to the lowest level since the end of March.
Gold prices fell below the key $2,000 level as the dollar and Treasury yields regained footing on Wednesday. Oil slid about 2% to a two-week low despite a sharp decline in U.S. crude inventories.
The dollar fell against most major currencies on Tuesday after better-than-forecast growth data from China. Gold rebounded after dipping below $2,000 an ounce.
The central question facing the Fed is what to do with interest rates at a time when the current economic data shows continued strength and inflation well above the Fed’s target, but stresses in the banking system threaten to derail growth. Traders are pricing in a quarter-point hike in January, according to the CME tool.
