Nancy Pelosi Stocks: Should You Follow Her Picks in 2025?

Nancy Pelosi, the former Speaker of the House, has long been a focal point in discussions about congressional stock trading. Her investment activities, particularly those involving her husband, Paul Pelosi, have garnered significant attention due to their timing and substantial returns.

As of April 2025, Pelosi's estimated net worth is $252.7 million, with approximately $119.9 million invested in publicly traded assets.

In May 2025, the question remains: Should you follow Nancy Pelosi's stock picks? This article delves into her recent trades, their performance, and implications for investors.

Understanding Nancy Pelosi's Recent Investment Activities

Due to her influential position in Congress, Nancy Pelosi's investment activities are closely monitored. While she has stated that she does not personally engage in stock trading, her husband, Paul Pelosi, has made numerous publicly disclosed trades, as required by the STOCK Act.

These disclosures have led to platforms like Quiver Quantitative and Capitol Trades, which track and analyse congressional trading activities.

In early 2025, Paul Pelosi made several notable trades:

• Tempus AI (NASDAQ: TEM): Purchased 50 call option contracts with a strike price of $20, expiring January 16, 2026. The stock surged after the trade became public, reaching a high of $91 before settling at $43.23. This position remains profitable, with an intrinsic value of approximately $116,150, not accounting for the premium paid.

• Vistra Corp (NYSE: VST): Acquired 50 call option contracts with a strike price of $50, expiring January 16, 2026. The stock has performed exceptionally well, currently trading at $112.63, resulting in an intrinsic value of about $313,150.

• Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN): Purchased 50 call option contracts with a strike price of $150, expiring January 16, 2026. With the stock trading at $173.18, the intrinsic value is approximately $115,900.

• Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOGL): Bought 50 call option contracts with a strike price of $150, expiring January 16, 2026. The stock's performance has been modest, with the current price hovering around the strike price.

• NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA): Acquired 50 call option contracts with a strike price of $80, expiring January 16, 2026. The stock is trading at $98.89, yielding an intrinsic value of approximately $94,450.

These trades focus on technology and AI sectors, aligning with broader market trends.

The Impact of Pelosi's Trades on Stock Performance

Paul Pelosi's disclosed trades often increased interest and trading volumes in the associated stocks. For instance, after the Tempus AI trade became public, the stock experienced a significant surge, part of the "Pelosi effect." This phenomenon underscores the influence that prominent figures can have on market dynamics.

However, it's essential to note that while some trades have yielded substantial returns, others have underperformed or remained flat. For example, the Alphabet options have not seen significant gains, highlighting the inherent risks of following such trades unknowingly.

Ethical Considerations and Legislative Responses

The trading activities of members of Congress and their families have sparked debates about potential conflicts of interest and the need for stricter regulations. Critics argue that access to non-public information could provide unfair advantages in the stock market. In response, bipartisan efforts have emerged to address these concerns.

One notable initiative is the reintroduction of the Preventing Elected Leaders from Owning Securities and Investments (PELOSI) Act by Senator Josh Hawley in early 2025. This legislation aims to prohibit members of Congress and their immediate families from owning or trading individual stocks.

While Nancy Pelosi has faced scrutiny over her husband's trades, she has maintained that she does not engage in stock trading and supports transparency measures.

Should You Follow Nancy Pelosi Stocks?

Pelosi's investment approach has shown a strong focus on the technology sector, particularly companies involved in artificial intelligence and semiconductors. Her timely trades in companies like Nvidia, Amazon, and Alphabet have capitalised on market trends and technological advancements.

Historical Performance Overview

• 2014–2025: According to Quiver Quantitative, a strategy emulating Pelosi's trades since May 2014 has yielded returns exceeding 700%, significantly outpacing the S&P 500's approximate 230% gain during the same period.

• 2024: Pelosi's portfolio achieved remarkable returns, with reports indicating gains of 54% and even up to 92.53% by mid-October. These returns were driven by strategic investments in technology stocks, notably Nvidia (NVDA), which saw substantial appreciation.

• 2025: In early 2025, Pelosi's investments continued to perform well. For instance, an investment in Tempus AI (TEM) resulted in significant gains, contributing to a 19.72% return on a hypothetical $1,000 investment within just over a month.

Considerations and Risks

While Pelosi's trading history has been notably successful, it's essential to recognise the inherent risks in following any individual's investment strategy.

Factors to consider include:

• Transparency and Timeliness: While congressional trades are disclosed, there is often a delay between the transaction and public reporting, which can affect the potential for replicating gains.

• Market Influence: The "Pelosi effect" can lead to short-term stock surges following disclosures, but these may not be sustainable in the long term.

• Risk Tolerance: Investing in options, as seen in many of Paul Pelosi's trades, carries higher risk and may not align with all investors' strategies.

• Ethical Implications: Some investors may have reservations about profiting from trades under scrutiny.

All in all, while analysing the trades of influential figures can provide insights, it's crucial to conduct independent research and consider personal investment goals and risk tolerance.

Conclusion

In conclusion, Nancy Pelosi's stock trades, primarily executed by her husband, have continued to attract attention in 2025. While some investments have performed well, others have not yielded significant returns.

For individual investors, the key takeaway is the importance of due diligence and aligning investment decisions with personal financial objectives rather than solely relying on the actions of public figures.

Disclaimer: This material is for general information purposes only and is not intended as (and should not be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by EBC or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.