Labor market contraction - NFP


Nonfarm payrolls rose by 336,000 in September, surpassing the Dow Jones forecast of 170,000 and exceeding the prior month by over 100,000.

NFP (Changes in non-farm payroll)

3/11/2023 (Fri) 

Previous (Sep):336k Forecast: 172k

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 336,000 in September, better than the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 170,000 and more than 100,000 higher than the previous month.

The payrolls increase was the best monthly number since January but wage growth slowed. Average hour earnings increased 4.2% from a year ago, down from 4.3% in August.

The number of Americans applying for jobless benefits rose last week but remains historically low. It is argued that a soft landing was possible because of the unprecedented level of labor market tightness.

However, stabilizing at a still-overheated labor market is likely inconsistent with achieving the Fed’s target of 2 percent inflation in a timely and sustainable manner.


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